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Tuesday, November 30, 2004
NFL Power Ratings after Week 12
Comments: The Top Six remain in place after all but Baltimore win. Interestingly, the spreadsheet scores that game for the Patriots as a 33-5 win against a normal team on a neutral field, while the Ravens get hung with only a 5-18 loss. This just reflects that the game had two good teams in it.
As discussed earlier, the NFC is clearly weaker than the AFC this year, by a substantial amount. The ratings reflect that with only one NFC team in the top 10 (Philadelphia at #3), and only two AFC teams in the bottom ten. The spreadsheet is quite disdainful of NFC West Division leader Seattle, but they are 6-5 against the weakest schedule in the league. San Francisco's season is even worse than it looks at 1-10; they have faced the second easiest schedule. The toughest schedule has been that of Jacksonville.
NE 112.8
Ind 112.3
Phi 110.9
Pit 107.7
SD 107.2
Bal 106.0
NYJ 105.7
KC 104.3
Den 103.5
Buf 103.2
GB 101.9
Atl 101.5
Min 101.2
Jax 100.0
Cin 99.3
Cle 99.1
NYG 98.6
Hou 98.5
Ten 98.1
Car 98.0
Sea 97.9
TB 97.5
Oak 96.6
Chi 95.6
Was 95.5
Det 95.2
StL 94.7
Mia 94.0
AZ 93.8
Dal 93.0
NO 91.1
SF 85.2
NFC Continues to Stink Up the Joint
If the NFL's season ended today, the 5-6 Rams would be in the postseason, and the 7-4 Broncos would be out. The AFC is now 32-18 in games against NFC teams, with even the lowly Miami Dolphins at 2-2 against the other conference. If you sort the teams by Points Ratio (Points Scored divided by Points Allowed), the only two NFC teams in the top 10 are Philadelphia at #1 and Green Bay at #9.
Monday, November 29, 2004
See the Sun
Nice column by William Safire, but I exploded with laughter at this line:
I suspect a subpoena forced Kojo to hire a lawyer, whom reporter Rosett tracked down and The Sun had its first world beat.
Rosett is Claudia Rosett, and if she does not win a Pulitzer for this story it should only be because other NY Sun reporters (like Tom Lipscomb and his amazing work on John Kerry's involvement with the VVAW assassination plot) also deserve it.
What Do the Democrats Need to Do?
I've been noodling on this since the election.
First, they need to stop lying about their more controversial positions, and start persuading.
One of the obvious issues that they are lying about is gay marriage. It's safe to say that most Democrats feel that anything less than full gay marriage with all the rights and benefits and problems of heterosexual marriage amounts to legalized discrimination. A reasonable case can be made for that argument. Not saying I buy it personally, but it is certainly an argument.
But liberal politicians are unwilling to attempt this argument because their polling says it will cost them votes. So they say they're opposed to gay marriage while simultaneously being against anything that would prevent it from happening. They appear to be hoping that the courts will intervene (as they have in Massachusetts), and that with younger people purportedly more tolerant on gay issues that demographics will bail them out over time.
Of course, hoping for the courts to intervene guarantees only that the battle will linger, as the continuing battle over Roe v. Wade demonstrates. Issues that are resolved legislatively are generally settled for good; issues that are resolved judicially are seldom seen as binding by the losers. And at any rate, the voters deserve to know what their leaders really think, not have their own opinions regurgitated back at them.
This is just one issue, but there are lots like it. Let's take abortion for another. What is the real Democratic position? No restrictions on abortion at all. Again, an argument can be made for this position, but you will not find a major Democrat enunciating it. Why? Because they know it's a loser among those people who vote largely based on the abortion issue. So instead they vote against any restrictions on abortion including the disgusting partial birth abortion procedure.
Or gun control. Let's face it, most liberals would like to ban all guns in private hands (as is common in much of Europe). Be honest, liberals!
I'm not kidding with these suggestions. Yes, they would kill the liberals for awhile, because they have been trying to snooker everybody with their "third way" positions for 12 years now. But it's not working, and you can't really get away with the mushy middle anymore. We're all onto you in Red State America. You are fooling nobody but yourselves.
Sunday, November 28, 2004
This Won't Succeed
I enjoyed this article about an American living in Canada, and her caution to those thinking of leaving the US in favor of the Great White North.
Although I enjoy my work and have made good friends here, I've found life as an American expatriate in Canada difficult, frustrating and even painful in ways that have surprised me. As attractive as living here may be in theory, the reality's something else. For me, it's been one of almost daily confrontation with a powerful anti-Americanism that pervades many aspects of life. When I've mentioned this phenomenon to Canadian friends, they've furrowed their brows sympathetically and said, "Yes, Canadian anti-Americanism can be very subtle." My response is, there's nothing subtle about it.
Just one problem here. The writer assumes that those Americans who are talking of emigrating will be turned off by the notion of open and reflexive anti-Americanism. For the most part, they won't.
It's Dowdy-Doody Time!
Looks like Maureen Dowd's family probably thinks of her as "Slow-Mo", just like us bloggers.
I've been surprised, out on the road, how often I get asked about my family. They're beyond red - more like crimson. My sister flew to West Virginia in October to work a phone bank for W.
People often wonder what our Thanksgiving is like.
It's lovely - if you enjoy hearing about how brilliant Ann Coulter is, how misguided The New York Times's editorial page is, and how valiant the president is as he tries to stop America's slide into paganism.
Heheh, sounds just awful, Mo!
Thursday, November 25, 2004
Rather Admits He Was Forced Out?
How else to read this article?
"Somebody said to me the other day, ‘Well, weren’t you trying to get to the 25th anniversary?’ And I said, ‘Truthfully, no, I was trying to get to the 35th anniversary.’ But life’s not like that."
Mr. Rather said he’d consulted with CBS president Les Moonves, his agent Richard Liebner, his wife Jean, and even his daughter and son when he made his choice. But in the end, Mr. Rather listened to what he described as a "wee, small voice" when he decided to exit the position much earlier than his contract allowed for.
Read it down to the bottom for Olbermann's comments about the recount in Ohio. Nice to see that the "reality-based community" still believes in the Tooth Fairy.
Tuesday, November 23, 2004
The Legion of Super-Heroes
The first comic series that I really got into as a kid was the Legion of Super-Heroes in Adventure Comics. Through the wonders of abpc, I have read in the last couple of days the first 22 issues in that series, from Adventure 300-321. Here are my general impressions:
There were several recurring plotlines during those issues. Perhaps the most important was the death (and later resurrection) of Lightning Lad. In Adventure #304, Saturn Girl assumed leadership of the Legion through trickery. Once in charge, she became a despot (a frequent theme; see Adventure #318), and forbade all the Legion members to use their powers for minor infractions. She was also stealing their powers secretly. It turns out that she has learned that a computer predicted the death of a Legion member using his or her power to repel an invasion, so she wants to make sure that she is the one to die. However, at the last moment, Lightning Lad disobeys her and dies instead.
This is a very significant issue in the history of DC comics. Lightning Lad was, as far as I know, the first recurring non-villain character to die in a DC story and not come back to life by the end of that story. However, they did hold out hope that he could be revived in the final panel.
"Or is it possible that the super-science of the 30th century can restore his life? See forthcoming issues of Adventure Comics for the surprising answer!"
For the next several issues, there would be a brief mention or two or Lighting Lad. In Adventure #305, where Mon-El finally leaves the Phantom Zone, the first two panels and the last one contain mentions of Lightning Lad. In Adventure #308, Lightning Lad apparently comes back to life, but it turns out to be his sister, Lightning Lass. In Adventure #310, when Ultra-Boy is (apparently) killed, Saturn Girl mentions that he is the second Legion member to die. He comes back to life at the end of the story, however as it is revealed that his death was just a trick by a descendant of Mr Myxptlk.
Finally, in Adventure #312, the Lightning Lad saga is brought to a temporary climax. The Legion resolves to dedicate itself to finding a way to revive him. Eventually a way is discovered, but it requires one of the existing members to die. Apparently Saturn Girl is the one chosen by fate, but she turns out to have been mimicked by Proty, a shape-shifting pet of Chameleon Boy's. Proty dies a hero and Lightning Lad returns to life.
There were two loose ends to this saga. First, Proty was honored with a special plaque and statue in a ceremony in Adventure #316. And Lightning Lass was redundant now, so in Adventure #317 her powers were changed to making things light, and she became Light Lass.
The other major story was the Legion of Substitute Heroes. This group was comprised of Legion rejects who still had super powers but were flawed in some way. They first appeared in Adventure #306, returned in a major role in Adventure #311 and were finally discovered by the real Legion in Adventure #315. In that issue the original Legion had a contest to see which member of the Substitutes would be allowed to join. In an upset, Stone Boy won, but declined membership preferring to stay with his old group. The highlight of the Substitute Heroes subplot came in Adventure #319 when they managed to defeat a threat that had beaten the Legion (thanks mostly to Night Girl).
There is a conscious effort to highlight the uses of the powers of the superheroes, even those with the lamest of abilities. Matter Eater Lad's super power might seem pretty pedestrian, so we see him eating his way out of a prison, and in another episode eating the inside of a meteor so that it can be used to disguise a spaceship. Bouncing Boy defeats the mighty earthquake beast in Adventure #309 by bouncing around and getting the monster to quake a mountain down on itself.
On the soap opera front, we learn in Adventure #306 that Night Girl has her eye on Cosmic Boy. And in Adventure #316 we discover that Phantom Girl is sweet on Ultra Boy. Already established long term is that Saturn Girl will marry Lightning Lad (previously shown in a Supergirl story in Action Comics). And in Adventure #317, Star Boy makes obvious his affection for Dream Girl. Not surprisingly the women admire from afar, while the men are more likely to make their interests known (although amusingly, at first all the male legion men appear interested in the platinum blonde Dream Girl).
In an interesting twist, the ground is laid for the Legion's major villain, the Time Trapper in Adventure #317. The story (and the one in Adventure #318) mentions the Time Trapper as if we have already met him, but he does not actually appear until Adventure #321.
One thing that I had not noticed reading the stories as a youngster was the special problem posed to Legion writers by the characters of Superboy, Mon-El and Ultra Boy (and to a lesser extent Supergirl). Their tremendous powers make it difficult to maintain the illusion of danger to the other Legion members. As such, the writers frequently had them responding to some other emergency. In both Adventure #317 and #318 they are shown attempting to break through the Time Trapper's barrier. It's very likely that the villainous Trapper was developed to give them a continuing reason to be away from the Legion.
Why Do the Power Ratings?
The simple reason is that they work. I looked at the ratings as of Week Three. If you had just ranked teams based on Won/Lost Percentage at that time, the correlation between that ranking and the teams' Won/Lost Percentages since then was 32.5%. If you ranked the teams based on power ratings, the correlation between that ranking and the teams' Won/Lost Percentage is much higher--50.2%
I then did the same calculation for my rankings as of Weeks 4-7, summarized as follows:
Week 4: Win% Correl: 32.6%
Week 4: PWRR Correl: 42.2%
Week 5: Win% Correl: 31.5%
Week 5: PWRR Correl: 33.5%
Week 6: Win% Correl: 22.6%
Week 6: PWRR Correl: 31.9%
Week 7: Win% Correl: 28.9%
Week 7: PWRR Correl: 30.8%
As you can see, in each case, the Power Ranking correlation is higher than the ranking based on prior winning percentage.
Power Ratings for Week 11
Comments: Indy slips ahead of Philly on the basis of its crushing of the Bears at Chicago. San Francisco gets a firm grip on last place in the Power Ratings; a loss this weekend at Miami would probably clinch it for the '49ers, who have probably not been the worst team in the league this late in the season since 1979, Joe Montana's rookie year.
The AFC continues to dominate in interconference games at 27-17 and are now collectively 10 games above .500. This means that some good AFC teams will not make the playoffs. If the season were to end today, one of the AFC teams at 7-3 would be out of the picture, and a 5-5 team in the NFC would be in the Super Bowl tournament.
The average home field advantage remains at about 2.8 points. Only eight teams this season have played worse at home than on the road, with oddly enough three of them in the NFC North (Chicago, Detroit and Green Bay). Is this some indicator? Doesn't look like it, because last year those three teams all had positive home field advantages, with Chicago and Detroit well above average.
NE 110.8
Ind 110.2
Phi 109.7
Pit 107.8
SD 107.1
Bal 107.0
Den 104.7
NYJ 104.3
KC 104.3
Atl 103.1
Sea 101.1
Min 100.5
GB 100.5
NYG 100.5
Cle 100.3
Jax 100.2
Buf 99.1
Cin 99.1
Ten 98.6
Hou 98.3
TB 98.2
Car 97.3
Chi 97.2
StL 96.7
Det 96.6
Was 95.4
Oak 94.6
AZ 94.0
Mia 93.6
Dal 91.4
NO 90.9
SF 86.8
Monday, November 22, 2004
Movie Review: National Treasure
The Good: Solid acting, entertaining film. Good chemistry between the stars.
The Bad: Some rather large plot holes, and an anti-climactic ending.
National Treasure is fun, if a trifle ridiculous. The basic plot (revealed in the film's opening scenes) is that the stupendous treasure of the Knights Templar has been hidden away by the Founding Fathers with clues located in historical sites and on the back of the Declaration of Independence.
Nicholas Cage plays Benjamin Franklin Gates, apparently the seventh generation Gates to search for the treasure. He is assisted by his buddy Riley (Justin Bartha) and the Director of the National Archives, Dr. Abigail Chase (Diane Kruger) as they race against bad guy Ian Howe (Sean Bean).
Gates and Howe originally team up to search for the treasure, but their partnership is terminated when the former refuses to go along with a plan to steal the Declaration of Independence. After fruitlessly trying to warn authorities (including the gorgeous Dr Chase) about the impending heist, Gates decides that the only way to save the precious document is to steal it himself. From there, the treasure hunt is on.
The chemistry between the stars is excellent, although Harvey Keitel is largely wasted as an FBI agent chasing Gates, and Jon Voight phones in his 100th performance in a row as Gates' father. There is some excellent cinematography throughout and lots of wonderful historic locations.
There are also lots of plot holes. At one point the characters need to look where the shadow of Independence Hall falls "at 2:22 PM", with no apparent recognition that the shadow would fall in different places at different times of the year. Despite its apparent fragility, the Declaration ends up getting rolled up and unrolled many times during the course of the movie.
1970s Movie Trivia Answers
1. What business is Ned Beatty well-respected in during the movie "Deliverance"?
Beatty's character was well-respected in the insurance business.
2. What advice is offered when playing a Wookie in a game?
3. What brand of chewing gum does Jack Nicholson offer to The Chief in "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest"?
Juicy Fruit
4. (Jeopardy-style): Gene Hackman, Red Buttons, Roddy McDowell, Leslie Nielsen and Pamela Sue Martin.
What actors were featured in the movie, The Poseidon Adventure?
5. This dark comedy featured Walter Matthau marrying a shy but wealthy botanist with the intent of murdering her to pay for his excessive lifestyle.
The New Leaf
6. In this 1974 film Warren Beatty tries to track down the conspiracy behind the assassination of a US Senator at the Space Needle in Seattle.
The Parallax View
7. What was Donald Sutherland and Elliot Gould's second picture together, after M*A*S*H*?
S*P*Y*S
8. What recommendation does Roy Scheider have about shark hunting?
9. What crime did Popeye Doyle claim to have a witness to a small-time criminal committing in the opening to "The French Connection"?
Picking his feet in Poughkeepsie.
10. Name Steven Spielberg's first movie. It was made for TV and featured Dennis Weaver battling a huge Ford truck.
Duel
Berkeley Bananas
Richard Baehr looks at the Berkeley "paper" on the results in South Florida and comes to the same conclusion I did; that if you get enough sociology students together, they may "prove" to their own satisfaction that Kerry won, but they will never prove it to our satisfaction.
He proceeds along the same lines as my analysis, but I did like this bit:
Finally, let us not forget that these three counties are in Florida, a state that consistently votes more Republican in Presidential elections than the nation as a whole. Starting with 1952, there have been 14 Presidential elections, including the 2004 race. In 12 of them, all but 1964 and 1976, the Republican candidate for President has outperformed in Florida compared to his performance nationally. This has occurred now in 7 consecutive elections. This year, Bush won Florida by 5%, and won the popular vote nationally by 2.9%. In 2000, Bush won Florida by 0.01% (call it a tie if you like), and lost nationally by 0.5%. In 1996, Dole lost Florida by just under 6%, but lost nationally by over 8%. In 1992, Bush’s father carried Florida by 2%, while losing nationally by 5%. So it is no surprise that Bush won Florida this year, or that he won it by a bigger percentage than his national margin.
Saturday, November 20, 2004
Is This a Parody?
It's hard to believe anybody could be so completely non-compos as to write this tripe. When asked what the Democrats need to do, Diane Glass says:
Like Buddha and Shaunti advise, take the middle road, Democrats! Stop voting for the tree hugger with the most liberal record. We have to live with conservatives, so let’s pretend we care about them. It’s called a bait and switch strategy, which is a lot like what we’re about to experience over the next four years.
You want to run for president? Wear baseball caps and drink beer in an aluminum can. This imparts a quaint, guy-next-door persona. Voters will want to have a beer with you, talk to you and share a few laughs. You’ll be the kind of president everyone can understand, not the scary intellectual who can outsmart them.
Mispronounce a few words. Don’t strive for flawless oratory. This only challenges our collective intelligence. It makes us feel like we didn’t study enough before turning on the television. People don’t like to think while watching TV. When in doubt, look energetic.
Jeez, Diane, those are brilliant suggestions; so brilliant that Kerry used almost of them (he couldn't quite bring himself to drink beer out of a can). But he did wear baseball caps, and threw baseballs and footballs around the tarmac. He started mispronouncing words ("idear" for "idea" most notably). He did drink beer (or at least, he made sure to be photographed with beer bottles occasionally.
It is exactly this sort of atttitude that cost the Democrats this election; that they have to lie to people (bait and switch), that they have to pretend to be just folks, that they can win, in short, by being phony. Perhaps it's just natural given that they perceive Bush as this big phony themselves.
Friday, November 19, 2004
Heroes of WWII
Graham Lester has two parts of what will be a continuing series over at his blog. Great stuff.
One of my favorite stories of WWII is that of Doris (Dorrie) Miller. Despite being born with a woman's first name, and despite a lack of combat training (as a black man he was limited to mess hall duty) he conducted himself with uncommon valor during the attack on Pearl Harbor.
Lies, Damned Lies....--Updated!
And statistics. A group of students and professors at Cal-Berkeley are convinced that something's fishy in Florida.
The three counties where anomalies were most prevalent were Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade. In Broward, statistical analysis showed Bush should have received 13,000 fewer votes this year than in 2000. In fact, he received 59,000 more votes than expected, for a net gain of 72,000 votes.
In Palm Beach county, analysis showed that Bush should have gained only 17,000 votes. But instead he gained 57,000. In Miami-Dade county he was expected to gain votes, but by much less than he actually did. According to the researchers he should have received only 29,000 more votes, but he actually gained 44,000 votes.
The numbers cited make little sense at all. Let's look at Broward County, since that seems to be the one with the biggest reported "anomaly". First of all, a LOT more people voted for one of the two major party candidates in Broward in 2004 than voted in 2000; 682,000 compared to 564,000, an increase of over 20% in turnout. That's actually a little low; overall turnout was up about 28% in the Sunshine State.
And yet with 128,000 more people voting in Broward, they expect Bush's total number of votes to go down by 13,000? That doesn't make any sense unless you assume that all the new votes went to Kerry.
Look at it another way. Bush improved his share of the vote by about 2.5% in Florida. He improved his share of the vote by 3.5% in Broward County. If we say that he should only have improved it by 2.5% as elsewhere, you'd lop about 7,000 votes from Bush's total. If you say that he shouldn't have improved his share at all, you'd have to take 24,000 votes away from his actual total. But if you say that he should have gotten 13,000 fewer votes than in 2000, while leaving Kerry's vote total unchanged, you'd have Bush getting only 27% of the vote in Broward, a 4.4% decline compared to 2000. Bush's share of the vote did not decline by 4% in any county in Florida; his worst performance compared to 2000 was -3% in tiny Gadsden County.
(Update: The figures changed in a later version of the Wired Article, so I revised my calculations).
The Greatest Rock Songs of All Time
Roger L. Simon put up a post about Rolling Stone Magazine's selection of the top 500 rock songs of all time. Here's the top 20:
Like a Rolling Stone, Bob Dylan
(I Can't Get No) Satisfaction, The Rolling Stones
Imagine, John Lennon
What's Going On, Marvin Gaye
Respect, Aretha Franklin
Good Vibrations, The Beach Boys
Johnny B Goode, Chuck Berry
Hey Jude, The Beatles
Smells Like Teen Spirit, Nirvana
What'd I Say, Ray Charles
My Generation, The Who
A Change is Gonna Come, Sam Cooke
Yesterday, The Beatles
Blowin' in the Wind, Bob Dylan
London Calling, The Clash
I Want to Hold Your Hand, The Beatles
Purple Haze, The Jimi Hendrix Experience
Maybellene, Chuck Berry
Hound Dog, Elvis Presley
Let It Be, The Beatles
"Imagine" is the obvious clunker on that list, ridiculously overrated at #3. The only song I'm not familiar with is the Sam Cooke tune. There are only two songs from after I graduated high school, and that was a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. One obvious thing; all those songs are singles; there are no extended tunes in there, no "Stairway to Heaven" or "Layla" (neither of which is a particular favorite of mine, but they usually get thrown into these lists).
Thursday, November 18, 2004
Remember the 1970s Answers
1. What TV game show featured a gigantic pinball machine? The Magnificent Marble Machine, hosted by Art James.
2. What sports franchise in the big four sports (baseball, football, basketball & hockey) won the most championships in the 1970s? The Montreal Canadiens won 5 Stanley Cups in the 1970s, beating out the Pittsburgh Steelers' four Super Bowl victories and the Oakland A's' three World Series wins.
3. When DC Comics brought back the 1940s-era Newsboy Legion in the 1970s, they redesigned Gabby's face to look a little less like what famous person? Gabby was made to look a little less like the President, Richard Nixon.
4. True or False: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won a playoff game during the 1970s. True. The Buccaneers defeated the Philadelphia Eagles in a 1979 playoff game and actually hosted the NFC Championship that year (which they lost to the Los Angeles Rams).
5. Who revealed the existence of tapes of White House phone conversations and meetings to the Watergate Committee? Alexander Butterfield, a White House aide, revealed the taping system.
6. Who was the daytime host of Wheel of Fortune in the 1970s? Chuck Woolery was the host of Wheel of Fortune.
7. Who wrote the stories in National Lampoon that were adapted for the screenplay of Animal House? Chris Miller wrote many tales of Delta House for NatLamp.
8. What band was chosen to play the final show at the Fillmore East? The Allman Brothers' Band, which had recorded a highly successful live album at the Fillmore East, were chosen to close the venue in 1971.
9. Excluding the center, what four NFL players (arguably) touched the ball during the play that became known as "The Immaculate Reception"? Terry Bradshaw, Frenchy Fuqua, Jack Tatum (disputed) and Franco Harris all touched the ball during The Immaculate Reception.
10. Who quarterbacked the Miami Dolphins for most of their undefeated 1972 season? The Miami Dolphins' quarterback for most of the 1972 season was Earl Morrall. The starter, Bob Griese, suffered a broken ankle early in the season and did not return until the second half of the AFC Championship Game. Ironically, four years earlier Morrall had taken over for an injured Johnny Unitas and been the NFL's MVP for the 1968 Colts, another team regarded as among the greatest of all time.
11. True or false: No team won back to back NBA Championships in the 1970s. True. The Knicks, Celtics and Lakers were the only team to win two titles in that decade, but did not win in consecutive years.
12. Name the Chicago Cubs' outfielder whose mad dash rescued an American flag from a couple of intoxicated fans who intended to burn it in centerfield at Dodger Stadium. Rick Monday snatched the flag from the hands of the fumble-fingered fans before they could set it on fire.
13. Speaking of mad dashes, why did Astros' baserunner Bob Watson race at full speed around the bases on May 5, 1975 after a teammate's home run? Watson raced around the bases because he had the opportunity to score major league baseball's one-millionth run. Reportedly, Dave Concepcion also dashed around the bases after hitting a solo shot at almost the same time, and ended up scoring run #1,000,001.
14. Who was George McGovern's first announced selection for his running mate in 1972? Why was he replaced? McGovern's original running mate was Thomas Eagleton of Missouri, who was forced from the ticket when it was revealed that he had suffered from depression and had undergone electro-shock treatment for the condition.
15. True or false: The 1971 issues of Green Lantern where Green Arrow's sidekick Speedy became a junkie were distributed without the Comics Code Authority Seal on the front cover. False (although commonly reported as true). In early 1971 Marvel had decided to tackle the subject of drug abuse in their popular Amazing Spider-Man comic. Although drug abuse was portrayed in a strongly negative manner (with one kid falling off a roof under the influence) the CCA refused to certify the three issues in which the drug theme was mentioned. The world did not end, retailers did not refuse to stock the comic, and the CCA was in danger of being revealed as a paper tiger. As a result, when DC came up with a much more nuanced storyline a few months later with a major character addicted to heroin, the CCA buckled and sent it out with their imprimatur.
I Predict the Democrats Will Embrace This Idea
Because it offers them the Democratic fantasy: Something for nothing. The article itself is about Florida politics, but it's revealing of the mindset of Democrats all over the country.
But the path back to power for Democrats lies in the drawing of legislative and congressional districts - the ability to stop the Republicans from continuing to do what Democrats did to them for more than 100 years. Having finally admitted to itself (after just 10 years) that Republican rule in the Florida Legislature wasn't just a distant ripple of the Gingrich revolution, the Democratic Party ought to campaign for constitutional amendments creating an independent commission to draw districts after the 2010 census.
It's a clean, good-government, nonpartisan issue, as American as the Fourth of July. Besides, people love taking power away from legislators, as we saw with the "Eight is Enough" term limits petition campaign in 1992.
Yep, something they can sell as goo-goo pu-pu (good government public policy) that just coincidentally happens to help Democrats? Hey, it's a lot easier than trying to "get" religion.
Wednesday, November 17, 2004
Florida Democrat Counties Voting for Bush?
This notion has gotten a fair amount of play over the last few weeks from Democrats anxious to find some way that Kerry actually won. Consider this:
There were the reports of several counties in Florida, all using optical scanner machines, where Democratic precincts voted overwhelmingly for Bush.
Or this:
In Baker County, for example, with 12,887 registered voters, 69.3% of them Democrats and 24.3% of them Republicans, the vote was only 2,180 for Kerry and 7,738 for Bush, the opposite of what is seen everywhere else in the country where registered Democrats largely voted for Kerry.
In Dixie County, with 9,676 registered voters, 77.5% of them Democrats and a mere 15% registered as Republicans, only 1,959 people voted for Kerry, but 4,433 voted for Bush.
The pattern repeats over and over again - but only in the counties where optical scanners were used. Franklin County, 77.3% registered Democrats, went 58.5% for Bush. Holmes County, 72.7% registered Democrats, went 77.25% for Bush.
Now, let's leave the question of optical scanners out of it for a moment. Is there anything surprising about Bush winning those particular counties? Not at all. Bush won all those counties in 2000 as well; his percentage of the vote was 70.1% in Baker County, 59.6% in Dixie County, 54.5% in Franklin County, and 69.7% in Holmes County in 2000. It is quite apparent that registered Democrats or not, people in those counties tend to vote Republican for President.
And errors in those tiny (population) counties could not possibly have given President Bush the election. Bush won those four counties by a combined 13,704 votes in 2004. Give Kerry all his votes in those counties and Bush would still have carried Florida easily.
It appears obvious to me that there's nothing here. The optical scanner issue is just a red herring.
1970s Movie Trivia
1. What business is Ned Beatty well-respected in during the movie "Deliverance"?
2. What advice is offered when playing a Wookie in a game?
3. What brand of chewing gum does Jack Nicholson offer to The Chief in "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest"?
4. (Jeopardy-style): Gene Hackman, Red Buttons, Roddy McDowell, Leslie Nielsen and Pamela Sue Martin.
5. This dark comedy featured Walter Matthau marrying a shy but wealthy botanist with the intent of murdering her to pay for his excessive lifestyle.
6. In this 1974 film Warren Beatty tries to track down the conspiracy behind the assassination of a US Senator at the Space Needle in Seattle.
7. What was Donald Sutherland and Elliot Gould's second picture together, after M*A*S*H*?
8. What recommendation does Roy Scheider have about shark hunting?
9. What crime did Popeye Doyle claim to have a witness to a small-time criminal committing in the opening to "The French Connection"?
10. Name Steven Spielberg's first movie. It was made for TV and featured Dennis Weaver battling a huge Ford truck.
Tuesday, November 16, 2004
Remember the 1970s?
I had so much fun filling in this quiz about the 1980s that I thought I would do the same for the 1970s. Not as many questions, but they may be a little tough. Feel free to put your answers in the comments, so don't check there until you've made your guesses.
1. What TV game show featured a gigantic pinball machine?
2. What sports franchise in the big four sports (baseball, football, basketball & hockey) won the most championships in the 1970s?
3. When DC Comics brought back the 1940s-era Newsboy Legion in the 1970s, they redesigned Gabby's face to look a little less like what famous person?
4. True or False: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won a playoff game during the 1970s.
5. Who revealed the existence of tapes of White House phone conversations and meetings to the Watergate Committee?
6. Who was the daytime host of Wheel of Fortune in the 1970s?
7. Who wrote the stories in National Lampoon that were adapted for the screenplay of Animal House?
8. What band was chosen to play the final show at the Fillmore East?
9. Excluding the center, what four NFL players (arguably) touched the ball during the play that became known as "The Immaculate Reception"?
10. Who quarterbacked the Miami Dolphins for most of their undefeated 1972 season?
11. True or false: No team won back to back NBA Championships in the 1970s.
12. Name the Chicago Cubs' outfielder whose mad dash rescued an American flag from a couple of intoxicated fans who intended to burn it in centerfield at Dodger Stadium.
13. Speaking of mad dashes, why did Astros' baserunner Bob Watson race at full speed around the bases on May 5, 1975 after a teammate's home run?
14. Who was George McGovern's first announced selection for his running mate in 1972? Why was he replaced?
15. True or false: The 1971 issues of Green Lantern where Green Arrow's sidekick Speedy became a junkie were distributed without the Comics Code Authority Seal on the front cover.
British Baseball?
Graham Lester remarks on the similarities between the National Pastime and Rounders, a British game that he played in his youth. Most historians today agree that the notion that Abner Doubleday invented the game in a field near Cooperstown was just a convenient myth, invented to give the game a uniquely American origin.
I took a look at the rules of Rounders. As you can see there are many similarities, including the concept of bases (called sanctuaries, which indeed are what bases represent). There are some dissimilarities, but some of these are due to the evolution of baseball. For example, batters are out if the ball is caught on one bounce, and runners can be thrown out by being hit with the ball. Both these rules were a part of baseball in the 1800s, but have since been changed. Other rules are quite different from baseball, such as the convention that bases are run in clockwise order.
Power Ratings After Week 10
Comments: You may have seen the stat tonight on MNF that there are eight teams with a 6-3 or better record in the AFC and only two such teams in the NFC. Actually that may understate things. The top nine teams in Power Rating are all AFC teams except for the Eagles, the second best team in the league.
The AFC is currently eight games over .500 against the NFC. Last year the AFC was only four games over .500, and one 10-6 team did not make the playoffs. This year the odds look high that two teams might achieve that distinction. Last year the NFC had all its 10-6 teams make the playoffs; this year it might be a 9-7 team that slips in. Lest you think this overstates things, consider this: the Bears are only one game out of the playoffs right now.
Can you name the three teams not to make the playoffs with 11 wins? Answer after the Power Rankings:
NE 111.0
Phi 108.7
Ind 107.6
Pit 107.6
SD 107.4
Bal 107.3
NYJ 104.0
Den 103.0
KC 102.8
Sea 102.2
Atl 102.0
NYG 102.0
Min 101.5
Jax 100.8
Cle 100.8
GB 100.4
Cin 99.2
Chi 98.9
Buf 98.9
Ten 98.2
Hou 98.2
StL 97.3
Det 96.8
TB 96.7
Was 96.3
AZ 96.1
Car 94.9
Mia 93.2
Oak 92.9
Dal 92.3
NO 92.1
SF 89.2
The 1985 Denver Broncos came up a day late and a game short with an 11-5 record which left them home for the holidays. Oddly enough (or perhaps not, given the wild cards) they are the only 11-5 team ever to miss the postseason.
The 1967 Baltimore Colts have to be history's all-time hard luck team in terms of missing the playoffs. They were undefeated going into the final game of the season at 11-0-2 (back then the NFL didn't have overtime, so tied games were more common), and in a moment of incredible scheduling and irony they traveled to the 10-1-2 Los Angeles Rams for the NFL's Coastal Division Title. The Rams won, making both teams 11-1-2, but LA was awarded the championship on the basis of best net points in games between the two teams.
The other team not to make the playoffs with 11 wins were the 1963 Green Bay Packers. Going for their third NFL title in a row, they went 11-2-1, and lost to the only team to beat them that year (twice), the Chicago Bears.
Monday, November 15, 2004
Gay Purge at the Democrats?
The talk about how gay marriage cost the Democrats this election may lead some to wonder if they will pursue a policy of chasing the gays out of the party. I'm not saying that's what's going on, but here's a weird pair of posts that seem mildly homophobic to my hetero ears. And yes, I know the first guy's gay. This is, to me at least, as disgusting as Kerry & Edwards' gratuitous references to Mary Cheney's lesbianism in the debates. I don't have a clue as to Mehlman's sexual preferences. If President Bush wants him in the job, I want him in the job.
Why Kerry Lost
John Hawkins lists 11 reasons.
My own reason? Because Kerry was a transparent phony from the word go. Over at Kerry Haters we covered this almost endlessly, because there were endless opportunities. All the photo ops of Kerry throwing a baseball or a football on the tarmac were ridiculous, as were his claims that he was opposed to gay marriage (most left-wing observers (and even some right wing Kerry supporters like Andrew Sullivan) assume he was lying on this point), and that he opposed abortion personally but was not about to foist his religious beliefs on anybody else. These were all, like the goose hunting outfit he wore, camouflage and nothing more.
The Reality-Based Community?
Helen Caldicott, grand dame of the no-nukes kooks:
"They [the Bush administration] have been able to con the American people with their extremely brilliant propaganda and brainwashing, with the help of the media ... they consistently lie. On the whole the American people don't really understand the dynamics of the right at all. They don't know that Bush et al want to go into Iran next and that they want to dominate the world militarily and that they want to put weapons in space.
With the help of the media? Oh, yeah, we want to thank all the media for helping to reelect President Bush.
Why Bush Won: It Wasn't Gay Marriage
Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics says the media and the Democrats want you to believe that, but it's probably not true.
If I had to characterize this election in a single phrase, I'd say it was an election about maturity, not morality. It was a referendum on serious issues and ultimately George Bush won because he was more serious about them than his opponent.
Exactly! The Democrats, just as they had in 2002, showed they were only interested in winning elections, not governing the country, and the voters, just as they had in 2002, made them pay for it.
Sunday, November 14, 2004
Egg On His Face
Kerry Rerun? Don't Count on It
The last Democrat to be nominated again despite losing a Presidential election was Adlai Stevenson back in 1956. He had lost to Eisenhower in 1952, who was widely perceived as unbeatable; both parties had courted him to run for the White House under their banner. And of course in 1956, the Democratic nominee had to be another sacrificial lamb against Ike, so the "A" list Democrats were sitting on the sidelines. The Democrats did not go with Stevenson again in 1960, although he made an attempt.
There is something sensible about renominating a candidate who has lost in a race against someone seen as unbeatable. However, this time around, Democrats certainly did not view Bush as unbeatable (although with over 60 million votes he may well have been). They thought they should win this race easily.
Since Stevenson, losing Democrats have been Humphrey, McGovern, Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry. Humphrey was the only one of Kerry's predecessors to run again, so far, although Gore looks to be angling for the position of spokesman for the angry left next time around.
Hillary's running, that's almost certain. Gore will be in. Bayh? Dean? Edwards is a certainty. Another way to look at it is what constituency in the party will Kerry command? In 2004, he appealed to the ABB group, which will not be around next time. Dean or Gore will be marshalling the troops of the left. Hillary will control the feminists, the minorities and the teachers. Edwards will command the trial lawyers. About the only group really up for grabs are the unions and we saw how well they delivered in the primaries for Dick Gephardt.
Mid-Season Awards
Best Team: New England. Pittsburgh is certainly looking impressive, coming off back to back wins over the Pats & the Eagles.
MVP: Peyton Manning. An easy pick despite his team's somewhat disappointing 5-3 record; with 26 TDs and four interceptions, Manning is having a career year. One problem with the no-huddle offense is that it tends to skew time of possession to the other team, which puts extra pressure on an obviously shaky Colts defense. The Colts show this in their statistics, with an average TOP of 28:23 versus their opponents' 31:37. This was also evident in the statistics for the most famous no-huddle team, the Buffalo Bills of the late 1980s-early 1990s who rode the offense to four consecutive Super Bowl appearances, and four consecutive defeats.
Rookie of the Year: Ben Roethlisberger. Another easy pick.
Defensive Player of the Year: Ray Lewis. His team has the best defense in the league, and he's the best player on that defense.
Coach of the Year: Cowher & Schottenheimer are getting most of the attention so far. I'm going with Belichick. His team has had a bullseye on it since they won the Super Bowl, and has only stumbled once. They're still the team to beat in the postseason.
Saturday, November 13, 2004
This Proves the Media Aren't Liberal?
From the Hartford Courant:
Reporters like Los Angeles Times political columnist Ron Brownstein have heard the criticisms over the months of the bitterly fought presidential campaign and beg to differ.
There was an "incredible cacophony coming out of the campaigns and the 527s," the new special-interest groups allowed to raise and spend unlimited money, Brownstein said. "And by and large I think we did a reasonable job.
"I really feel that the press was tested this year in the intensity of the attacks and the money spent. I'm not in a high flagellation mode."
When, for example, the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, one of the new 527s, broadcast ads attacking Democrat John Kerry's Vietnam service, major newspapers very quickly published detailed accounts undermining the claims, Brownstein said.
"But the problem is, of course, you may disprove something once, and it just keeps going," he said, arguing that there is a mistaken assumption among many news consumers that the press can drive political discussion.
Sigh. The media disproved exactly nothing. The detailed accounts undermining the Swiftees claims never existed.
Friday, November 12, 2004
Meet Tom Parks
Silver Star winner.
According to the Marines, Parks directed the security of the command group while exposing himself numerous times to heavy gunfire.
He moved from position to position, encouraging Marines and directing the gunfire to strong points in Saddam’s army.
During the fighting, Parks killed three of the enemy with his rifle, including a sniper who was about to fire his weapon at another Marine. He later destroyed a recently abandoned T-55 tank with an AT-4 rocket to prevent its future use.
Then running across the street under heavy small arms fire to direct the movement of an American tank. As he used the tank’s infantry phone to direct its fire, a rocket-propelled grenade fired from an enemy bunker narrowly missing Parks.
His orders to the tanks achieved the destruction of several enemy bunkers and strong-points.
By the end of the fight, Parks had single-handedly destroyed or demoralized a significant portion of the enemy defending the city of Al Kut.
"Through his bold leadership, wise judgment, and complete dedication to duty, Gunner Parks reflected great credit upon himself and upheld the highest traditions to the Marine Corps and the United States Naval Service," Parks’ proclamation reads.
The Reality-Based Community? X
Ralph Nader and some other lefties are trying to raise money for recounts.
Ralph Nader, who earned notoriety for decades as a consumer protection advocate, just wants to know the truth. How accurate are the Diebold voting machines in New Hampshire?
What's so unreal about wanting a recount in New Hampshire?
Kerry won New Hampshire.
On the Third Hand...
I commented earlier that Howard Dean was probably not a bad candidate for head of the DNC. However, one of the requirements of a party chair is to decide how to allocate scarce resources to races that his party has a chance to win, and Dean does not look like he did a good job of that. Here's the first "Dean Dozen" a set of candidates that Dean's organization, Democracy for America, endorsed, and how they did:
Mary Ann Andreas for State Assembly, CA: Lost 42-58
Ken Campbell for State House, SC: Lost
Mary Chapelle for State House, MO: Won (Unopposed)
Scott Clark, Mark Manoil & Nina Trasoff for the Arizona Corporation Commission: All lost
Kim Hynes for State Representative, CT: Lost
Richard Morrison for US House of Representatives, TX: Lost
Barack Obama for US Senate, IL: Won
Rob MacKenna for Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections: Lost
Monica Palacios-Boyce for Massachusetts State Representative: Lost
Lori Saldaña for State Assembly, CA: Won
Jeff Smith for US House of Representatives, MO: Lost (in Democratic Primary)
Donna Red Wing for State House, CO: Lost
Three for twelve, and one of the winners ran unopposed, so it's really two for eleven, and one of those (Obama) really ran effectively unopposed. That's a pretty pathetic record. This is just the first Dean Dozen; the website claims they were going to put forward another dozen every two weeks. I don't have time to go through them all, but it looks like Dean's not a very good horserace handicapper.
The Kids are All Right!
That's the message Newsweak wants to send with this silly little story.
So when exit polls suggested many of America’s youth had stayed home once again this year, the media wasn’t surprised. The Associated Press wrote them off by early evening on Election Day, saying the turnout wasn’t the groundswell that had been expected. Final exit polls showed that 18-29-year-olds made up only 17 percent of all voters—similar to 2000’s turnout. "Yeah, we rocked the vote all right,” gonzo journalist Hunter S. Thompson griped to the Aspen (Colo.) Daily News on election night. “Those little bastards betrayed us again." And as a final insult, the Drudge Report posted this snarky headline: VOTE OR DIE OR WHATEVER.
But it turns out that the youth vote did materialize, at least according to one study.
According to a new analysis of voter data, turnout among the under-30 set shot up 9 percent from 2000. The study, conducted by the University of Maryland’s Center for Information & Research on Civil Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE), found that at least 20.9 million in the 18-29-year-old bracket voted, compared with only about 16 million in 2000. The exit polls didn’t register the increase because they show the percentage of young voters out of all voters. Since every age bracket voted in higher numbers than in 2000, the exit polls showed about equal youth shares of total voters for 2004 and 2000—not an accurate picture of the youth vote, experts say. "The main information available to any of us at this point is the set of exit polls," says Scott Keeter, director of survey research at the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. "CIRCLE's analysis is the best careful look at this ... It's like the Bible to me now."
I tend to doubt this myself. First of all, the numbers don't make sense. They say that the percentage of 18-29-year-olds voting (as compared to other age brackets) did not increase because the other age brackets increased as well. But if their numbers went from 16 to 20.9 million, that's a 31% increase. But nationally the increase in overall voting was only about 10%. And 16 million is not 17% of the total vote of 105,000,000 in 2000; it's more like 15.2%, and 20.9 million is just over 18% of the total turnout in 2004.
The Reality-Based Community? IX
Superhawk takes on the Bill Maher thread that we discussed yesterday, but uses it as a jumping off point to some thoughts about the nature of the Left.
Think about it for a minute...the moonbat's aren't happy unless they see themselves in the role of the underdog. Put upon by an uncaring, unfeeling world; their moral and spiritual superiority unrecognized or suppressed by a cabal of greedy, corporate media elites or sinister Christian yahoos, moonbats stand on top of the battlements waving the bloody shirt as the rest of the world looks on with doe-eyed admiration.
Yes, that strikes me as spot on. Indeed, when you look at it in that light, I can't help wondering if we Republicans have missed the real significance of the Left's comparison of President Bush to Hitler. It's not so much that they are diminishing Hitler's evil, or expanding President Bush's perceived evil. It's that they are putting themselves in the position of the victims (and resisters) of the Holocaust. It's not about Bush or Hitler, it's about THEM.
Meet Patrick Jordan
Six years ago, he had been kicked out of two high schools. Today he's a hero.
With bullets and rocket-propelled grenades zinging around him, Patrick Jordan, 24, helped rescue 20 soldiers pinned down in a Baghdad alley last spring and then, by thinking fast, saved six soldiers after their Humvee broke down under heavy fire.
"I might've got the Silver Star, but we're all heroes," said Jordan, who has since been promoted to staff sergeant.
"Everyone who served. They're all heroes. No matter what war they fought in or if it was peacetime. They took time out of their lives to serve. Not everybody does that."
Barton Hinkle Talks Bizarro
This a pretty funny column:
We look up numbers on Bush and Kerry voters. Outfit called Edison Media Research and Mitkofsky International did research for news media consortium. It say high-school grads go for Bush 52-47. Folks with some college learning go for Bush 54-46. College grads go for Bush 52-46. Only two groups go for Kerry: those with post-graduate schooling (55-44) and those who not even finish high school (50-49). If really smart people and really dumb people agree, does that make dumb people look smart, or smart people look dumb?
All that academic now, pardon expression. We take your word we dumb. From now on follow your advice: Vote for us, you stupid morons. Only true genius could come up with real winning political slogan like that.
Memories of a Fallen Hero
Over at Kerry Haters a few months ago, we posted a link to an article written by a woman whose father had died in Vietnam. That touched off a chain of events that leads to this post by Small Town Veteran.
Sgt. Jack Gell never made it home. He volunteered to carry the radio for Captain Tony Nadal on November 14, 1965. He was killed when crossing the creek bed to go help locate the lost platoon. His dying words....."Tell my wife I love her...." His body was the first to arrive to Ft Benning. Rebecca notified by a telegram, alone with three small children...Inconsolable and in shock, the EMTs gave her medication to help her sleep. Heartbroken, she asked..."Will it last forever?"
Read it all, it's a great post.
The Reality-Based Community? VIII
The New York Times takes on the liberal bloggers on the "stolen" election meme:
But while the widely read universe of Web logs was often blamed for the swift propagation of faulty analyses, the blogosphere, as it has come to be known, spread the rumors so fast that experts were soon able to debunk them, rather than allowing them to linger and feed conspiracy theories. Within days of the first rumors of a stolen election, in fact, the most popular theories were being proved wrong - though many were still reluctant to let them go.
Clay Shirky, an adjunct professor in the interactive telecommunications program at New York University, suggests that the online fact-finding machine has come unmoored, and that some bloggers simply "can't imagine any universe in which a fair count of the votes would result in George Bush being re-elected president."
But some denizens of the Web see it differently.
Jake White, the owner of the Web log primordium.org, argues that he and other election-monitoring Web posters are not motivated solely by partisan politics. "While there are no doubt large segments of this movement that are being driven by that," he said in an e-mail message, "I prefer to think of it as discontent over the way the election was held."
Mr. White also quickly withdrew his own analysis of voting systems in Ohio when he realized the data he had used was inaccurate.
Articles like these, poking fun at the ridiculous conspiracy theories, will be used by liberals in their cries of "What Liberal Media?"
The Reality-Based Community? VII
Check out this thread on Bill Maher's website on the morality of killing Republicans.
Hat Tip: Power Line
After The Election
We suddenly look around and see that our unity lasted only until the election was over. Already a debate is erupting over Senator Arlen Specter that has divided most of the writers at NRO from Hugh Hewitt. Roger L. Simon sent up smoke signals that he was unhappy about the push on the Gay Marriage Amendment.
In a war, whomever is on your side is your buddy, your pal, but when the war is over, everybody has their own hot buttons. :)
Thursday, November 11, 2004
The Reality-Based Community? VI
The link on this one will go away tomorrow, but it's too good to pass up.
VINCENT D'Onofrio, the star of "Law & Order: Criminal Intent," passed out while shooting the hit TV series yesterday morning — prompting insiders to gossip that the actor is "losing it."
"Ever since John Kerry lost the election, [D'Onofrio] has lost his [bleep,]" said our on-set insider.
"He has been getting into fistfights with people, and when he passed out today, we all thought he was faking it. But then he insisted they call 911."
D'Onofrio, a big Kerry supporter, was said to be devastated over President Bush's re-election. "When PAGE SIX [last week] wrote about 'Law & Order' putting up signs forbidding political discussions on set, it was funny," our source said. "Those signs were put up because of [D'Onofrio]."
About a month before the election, D'Onofrio "insisted" on putting up anti-Bush posters and fliers, "and would attack anyone who disagreed with him," the spy added.
Hat Tip: Kitty
The Reality-Based Community? V
More folks making rumbles about moving abroad.
Leora Dowling and her husband thought returning from deep in "red" America to her native New England would make them feel more comfortable, more like the people around them shared their values. Since the election, she's been contemplating another move. To Italy.
Howard Dean Not a Bad Candidate for DNC Head
Dean actually does make sense in a couple of ways:
1. Proven ability to shake the money tree.
2. Proven ability to rouse the Democrats' left wing.
3. Arguable ability to attract new voters to the party.
Of course, he does have some negatives, too:
1. Nutty as a Starbucks macadamia latte (which is to say not as nutty as advertised).
2. Hates President Bush.
3. Shows no ability to lead or manage money.
That last one might need a little explanation. For those who weren't paying attention, in 2003 Howard Dean was the darling of pundits everywhere. He had a story, he was the antiwar candidate, he was attracting gazillions of dollars in donations over the internet, and more important he was establishing a monstrous organization. There was a kid living on an island off the coast of Alaska who had signed up 574 other Deaniacs from email and chatrooms who became briefly famous. There is no doubt that Dean had a ton of money compared to the other campaigns. There is also no doubt he had a ton of volunteers.
And he lost. Not only did he lose, but he lost big time. And not only did he lose big time, but he lost his ton of money.
Dean's a gamble, a roll of the dice. He might start screaming again, or he might kick start the Democrats' engine.
The Reality-Based Community? IV
Manuel Roig-Franzia and Dan Keating go through some of the conspiracy theories.
The Ohio vote-fraud theory appears to stem from the curious ways of the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections. During even-numbered years, the county's canvassing board posts vote totals that include the results from congressional districts outside the county that spill over Cuyahoga's borders. The quirk made it look as if the county had 90,000 more votes than voters.
The disparities were spotted, and urgent mass mailings began: "Ohio precincts report up to 1,586% turnout ... 30 Precincts in Ohio's Cuyahoga County report 'over' 100% turnout!" Later, the county added a disclaimer to its Web site in an attempt to explain the numbers.
"It takes me about three times to explain" why the fraud allegation is untrue, said Kimberly Bartlett, community outreach specialist for the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections. "You have to ask them why no top Democrat is making these charges."
Wednesday, November 10, 2004
The Reality-Based Community? III
Kitty has a great post on this topic. Her opening line is a classic!
The Reality-Based Community? II
I enjoyed this story about a Kerry supporter who tried to get his ridiculous float included in a Pumpkin Festival parade.
Tuscola County Chief Assistant Prosecutor Timothy J. Rutkowski said police came to the scene after Pumpkin Festival officials asked for help in preventing an "inappropriate display" from entering the parade.
VanAllen's display "appeared to be some sort of blow-up doll of the upper torso of George Bush, with an arrow sticking through the head," Rutkowski said.
Rutkowski said VanAllen tried to enter the parade with the display set up in the open bed of a sport-utility vehicle, in front of 8- and 9-year-old children in a parade entry behind VanAllen's vehicle.
A bumper sticker uttering an obscenity about Vice President Dick Cheney was on the back of the sport-utility vehicle, and a "Kerry/Edwards" campaign sign had been set up in the vehicle bed.
Police reported Page was "met with a barrage of cursings and name-calling" from VanAllen when Page told VanAllen he couldn't enter the parade. Muska, a Caro resident, came to Page's aid during the fight with VanAllen, helping the chief drag VanAllen from the vehicle.
VanAllen is facing up to a year in jail for assault.
The Reality-Based Community?--I
That's what liberals are calling themselves these days, but you gotta wonder. The San Francisco Bay Guardian notes this about respondents to an online poll:
SO I'M NOT the only fool: 60 percent of the respondents to the last Bay Guardian online poll thought John Kerry would win the election. Another 18 percent thought the lawyers would be fighting it out for weeks – and only 6.4 percent thought George W. Bush would win.
I'm going to make examples of just how unreal the reality based commmunity is a regular feature of Brainster's. There are quite a few out there already, from Lawrence O'Donnell's call for a secession movement to those who think Bush will be impeached.
Happy Birthday to the US Marines!
They've been protecting and serving for 229 years.
Blackfive has a message from the Commanding General of the 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force.
Marine Corps Moms has some thoughts from the Commandant of the Corps.
Dave's latest email from the sandbox is from just before the Battle of Fallujah over at the Green Side.
Mike the Marine has some rather martial thoughts on the birthday.
ACE continues to provide excellent coverage of the Marines' current battle in Fallujah.
Happy 229th!
Bush's Mandate
Gay Patriot points out that only three Democrats (Jackson, FDR & LBJ) have actually gotten a higher percentage of the vote than President Bush.
Hat Tip: Polipundit
Tuesday, November 09, 2004
NFL Power Ratings for Week 9
New England moves back to the top of the list as Philly takes a tumble at Pittsburgh. The Steelers are moving up rapidly, but let's see how they handle their newfound stardom after knocking off the remaining unbeatens in consecutive weeks.
The AFC is the stronger conference this year, with a record of 8 games above .500 against the NFC. Home field advantage has become fairly strong again, at 2.9 points per game, after being below 2 points for much of the season.
Not hard to figure out the problem with the Chiefs; they've got the best offense in the league with the worst defense in the league, plus of course they're playing a top seed schedule based on their performance last year. Before you discount the ranking, remember, they beat Indy two weeks ago by 10 and Atlanta the week before that by 46. Their rating is skewed by those two victories, true, but they're also recent performance.
NE 109.6
Phi 108.2
SD 107.3
Bal 107.1
Pit 106.6
Ind 105.1
NYJ 104.9
KC 103.4
Den 103.0
NYG 102.7
Sea 102.6
Cle 101.9
Min 101.5
Atl 101.3
Jax 100.9
GB 100.2
Hou 100.1
Buf 100.0
Chi 98.7
Cin 98.6
Ten 98.4
Was 97.7
Det 97.4
TB 97.1
AZ 95.5
StL 95.2
Car 94.2
Dal 93.6
Mia 93.4
Oak 92.8
SF 90.8
NO 90.7
Fallujah Updates
The Belmont Club has been doing a great job as usual, but if you're looking for a little different perspective, I recommend our old buddy from the Kerry Haters blog, ACE. He's got lots of maps, photos and intelligent discussions of what's going on.
Secession?
Okay, so nobody with half a brain is suggesting it, just Lawrence O'Donnell on the McLaughlin Group:
MR. O'DONNELL: No, this mandate talk is ridiculous. And Tony just loosely used the word "everybody" -- (chuckles) -- which is very funny in a county where 49 percent said we've had this guy for four years and we don't want him for another minute. That's 49 percent. He has strength through the Republican Senate. That pickup in the Senate is very, very important. That's where all the strength's going to come from.
But he's -- the government's bankrupt. It can't do anything he's been talking about. He had a Social Security commission recommend options back when there was a gigantic surplus. None of their work is relevant to this deficit situation. But the big problem the country now has, which is going to produce a serious discussion of secession over the next 20 years, is that the segment of the country that pays for the federal government is now being governed by the people who don't pay for the federal government.
MR. BLANKLEY: Did you say secession?
MR. BUCHANAN: (Laughs.)
MR. O'DONNELL: Yes, yes.
MR. BLANKLEY: Are you calling for civil war?
MR. O'DONNELL: Ninety -- not war; you can secede without firing a shot.
MR. BLANKLEY: Not if you have a Lincoln in the White House.
MR. O'DONNELL: Ninety percent of the red states are welfare client states of the federal government. They collect more from the federal government than they send in. New York and California, Connecticut, the states that are blue are all the states that are paying for the bulk of everything this government does, from the ward of Social Security to everything else, and the people in those states don't like what this government is doing.
It is a symptom perhaps of how enraged the Democrats are that O'Donnell would suggest that there is something wrong with folks who don't pay taxes on a net basis voting. Of course, O'Donnell would never say that about individuals, but when it comes to states, he's happy to make the argument.
Here are MSNBC's exit polling data on various income levels. The first number is the income level, the second is the % of the persons polled with that household income, the third is Kerry's percentage of the vote from that income group, and the fourth is Bush's percentage.
Under $15,000 8 63 36
$15,000-$29,999 15 57 42
$30,000-$49,999 22 50 49
$50,000-$74,999 23 43 56
$75,000-$99,999 14 45 55
$100,000-$149,999 11 42 57
$150,000-$199,999 4 42 58
$200,000 or more 3 35 63
As you can see, as the income rises, the percentage of voters casting their ballots for Kerry declines. The correlation isn't perfect--for some reason those making $75,000-$100,000 were more inclined to vote for Kerry than those making $50,000-$75,000--but Kerry did not win either group; in fact he got trounced rather handily. If we assume that those making $50,000 and up pay the vast majority of taxes in this country, then it is pretty obvious that they are also heavily Republican.
This is not really controversial; in their saner moments, the Democrats like to characterize themselves as the party representing the poor and the working class. It's just that O'Donnell and the rest of the Democrats are not sane right now.
I'm with Hewitt
On the Arlen Specter kerfuffle.
I don't like what Arlen Specter said, and it was particularly classless of him to say it immediately following an election in which the President lent him a big hand to get past a primary challenge from a more conservative Republican.
But...
I'm reminded of something the President said in his news conference following the election. He'd earned some political capital with the election, and he was going to spend it. Hugh Hewitt earned some political capital with me with his steadfastness on election night. The folks over at NRO did not cover themselves with glory on election night; indeed they seemed to be doom and gloom central. Now I don't want to twit them too hard on this; they were passing on what they believed to be reliable information when they commented on the exit polls over at The Corner. But Hewitt, faced with the same polls, did not start running around like a chicken with its head cut off. He said they were wrong.
And Hugh is not suggesting that we accept Specter's conditions on the types of judges the President should nominate. The President should nominate the judges he deems fit, and then if Specter proves to be an obstructionist, Frist can appoint a new leader of the judiciary committee. But Hugh's right, the easiest way to lose this narrow majority we have is to start demanding purity from Blue State Senators.
I don't like the fact that we have to deal with RINOs any more than you do. But I'm a realist, not an ideologue. A chastened Specter is better than an angered Specter.
Bad News for Democrats
Hollyweird hasn't lost its taste for politics.
Consider the example of John Cameron Mitchell, flamboyant creator of the critically acclaimed transsexual musical comedy "Hedwig and the Angry Inch." He traveled to Ohio to get out the vote for John Kerry and refused to feel discouraged by the disappointing results. "Ultimately, after a period of depression yesterday, today I feel even more energized!" he proudly told the New York Times.
Hmmm, makes one wonder what parts of Ohio are susceptible to pitches from flamboyant creators of critically acclaimed transsexual musical comedies. I doubt if it's Cincinnati, despite its nickname as the "Queen City".
Monday, November 08, 2004
Ben Roethlisberger
The hot new last name in the league has 14 letters. Looking at his stats, it's not hard to see that he looks like the real deal. He's played in 7 games so far, and five of those grade out as excellent one as okay and one as slightly below average. Not too shabby for a 23-year-old playing in his first seven games, especially considering the defenses he was facing, including Baltimore, New England and Philly.
Who's Running in 2008?
Ankle-Biting Pundits sizes up the Democratic field.
Media for Kerry
Others ( Betsy Newmark & Lorie Byrd) have focused on the part of this article where the Kerry campaign complains about their coverage by the media. That is indeed quite silly as Betsy & Lorie point out.
But get this part:
After Fox News called Ohio for President Bush on Election Night, John Kerry's aides began phoning top executives at the other networks to urge them to hold off, while White House adviser Karl Rove pressed them to join Fox in making the call. CBS, ABC and CNN made no projection in Ohio, and NBC had called Ohio before the Democrats reached the network.
"It's perfectly appropriate to call a network and make that case," says Kerry adviser Howard Wolfson, when "we have a set of facts and figures at our disposal to help them make the right call."
Maybe it was appropriate for the Kerry campaign to make that call. But note how effective the call was in getting the media to stop from calling Ohio for Bush. Two networks had predicted a Bush win in the Buckeye State before the calls, no network predicted a Bush win after the calls. CNN didn't call Ohio for Bush until the Kerry campaign conceded the state; I'd suspect but don't know for certain that ABC and CBS did the same. I know about CNN because I'd left their site up Tuesday night/Wednesday morning after going to bed and was quite startled when I noticed over breakfast that they still did not show Bush with more than 270 electoral votes.
In the end, Ohio went for Bush by a larger margin (2.5%) than Pennsylvania went for Kerry (2.1%). Just as in 2000, the networks were much more cautious in calling states for Bush than they were for the Democratic candidate.
Open Letter to Europeans
John Hawkins explains the election to them.
Additionally, when conservatives wave the flag, it's because we like doing it. When conservatives say "we support the troops," it's not some kind of dodge; we realize what a tough job they have and believe we should look out for them because of it. When we listen to Rush Limbaugh, it's not because we think he makes up great lies about liberals; it's because we believe he's telling the truth.
Well, that and we like those monthly checks we get from Halliburton!
I'd Like to See This Meme Catch On
Michael Moore is already blamed in some quarters for costing the Democrats the 2000 election with his support of Ralph Nader. Now, he's beginning to get blamed for costing them the 2004 election with his support of John Kerry.
It is that literally millions of the hard-working, responsible, decent citizens of this nation just may have had it up to their eyebrows with those Hollywood types and others who disdain their intelligence, mock their religion, dismiss their values, deprecate their lifestyles and disparage their social contributions.
Yep, and there is no indication that the Hollywood types are toning down their remarks; if anything they're becoming more inflammatory.
Another Steyn of the Good Stuff
Mark at his usual best.
Inaugurating the new second-term outreach was Brian Reade in the Daily Mirror, who attributed the President's victory to: "The self-righteous, gun-totin', military-lovin', sister-marryin', abortion-hatin', gay-loathin', foreigner-despisin', non-passport-ownin' rednecks, who believe God gave America the biggest dick in the world so it could urinate on the rest of us and make their land 'free and strong'."
Well, that's certainly why I supported Bush, but I'm not sure it entirely accounts for the other 59,459,765.
Worthy of reading all the way.
Sunday, November 07, 2004
Arizona Update
Republicans had a pretty good election day in my home state. John McCain won reelection handily with about 76% of the vote. We returned all 8 of our congressmen, which translates to a 6-2 record. Rick Renzi had been considered as somewhat vulnerable in District 1, and came under ferocious attack. He was facing Paul Babbitt, a member of a famous Arizona family. Renzi won quite easily, 59%-36%, winning every county in this huge district. And he wasn't riding Bush's coattails, as he had a higher percentage of the vote than the President in every county except Yavapai, where they tied. Looks like he's got that seat locked up for awhile.
Tom Wolfe
Brilliant, as usual.
They take Protestantism seriously. It tickles me when people talk about “the Christian right”. These people aren’t right wing, they’re just religious. If you’re religious, of course, you’re against gay marriage and abortion. You’re against a lot of things that have become part of the intellectual liberal liturgy.
Great article, although I am not enthralled by the "rock fight" description.
Michael Kinsley Has a Request
Don't call him arrogant or elitist.
I mean, look at it this way. (If you don't mind, that is.) It's true that people on my side of the divide want to live in a society where women are free to choose abortion and where gay relationships have full civil equality with straight ones. And you want to live in a society where the opposite is true. These are some of those conflicting values everyone is talking about. But at least my values -- as deplorable as I'm sure they are -- don't involve any direct imposition on you. We don't want to force you to have an abortion or to marry someone of the same gender, whereas you do want to close out those possibilities for us. Which is more arrogant?
This is the amusing and odd thing about the way the gay marriage debate has been turned around. Never mind the fact that no society in history has ever allowed gay marriage; that the "issue" was nowhere on the radar screen in say, 1985. We're intolerant for not embracing it.
And notice as well, that Kinsley assumes that John Kerry is on his side in this debate. I assume so as well, but to do so also requires that you assume that he's lying when he says he opposes gay marriage. And two of his precious blue states (reality-based states, they would call it), Michigan and Oregon, voted to ban gay marriage. Oh, so sorry! Guess they're part of Arrogant America as well?
Saturday, November 06, 2004
The Last Attack on the Swiftees
The Newsweak piece is out, and it's pretty much par for the course, except for the rather startling news that John Kerry met with North Vietnamese TERRORISTS in Paris.
The hatchet job starts early:
Nov. 15 issue - The attack of the Swift Boat vets did not catch the Kerry campaign by surprise, not entirely at least. Kerry's operatives had worried from the beginning that some right-wing group would try to use his old Vietnam antiwar speeches against him.
It's just some right-wing group. Of course, three of the leaders of the group (Lonsdale, Hoffman and Elliot) were men that supported Kerry in the past. For some reason this fact always comes up as a reason to discredit the Swiftees, and yet nobody ever seems to notice that it also discredits the notion that they're a bunch of right wingers.
The Swift Boat ads—a first round charging that Kerry had lied to win his medals, then a second batch accusing him of betraying his mates by calling them war criminals—were misleading, but they were very effective.
Misleading how? Of course, Newsweak never bothers to explain how, and indeed if you read the article, it quickly becomes obvious that the ads were not misleading, for the simple reason that the Kerry campaign could not point out the misleading parts.
In early August, when the Swift Boat story started to pick up steam on the talk shows, Susan Estrich, a California law professor, well-known liberal talking head and onetime campaign manager for Michael Dukakis, had called the Kerry campaign for marching orders. She had been booked on Fox's "Hannity & Colmes" to talk about the Swift Boat ads. What are the talking points? Estrich asked the Kerry campaign. There are none, she was told. Estrich was startled.
There were none, because Kerry was guilty as charged. Newsweak doesn't want to admit it, but it's not hard to read between the lines.
There is a great deal of discussion of how saddened the Kerrys were by the attacks against them; no mention of the decades of sadness for the Vietnam Vets caused by Kerry's speeches in 1971. Kerry's rebuttals are about as nuanced as Lawrence O'Donnell's:
"It's a pack of f—-ing lies, what they're saying about me," he fairly shouted over the phone.
Which Passing Stats Are Important?
I thought I'd take a quick look at this today. I took the statistics of all quarterbacks with at least 6 games played this season. There were 29 players. Then I looked at the Won/Lost Percentages for their teams and compared them to their stats.
Correlation explained. Correlation measures the degree to which two sets of numbers are related. For example, suppose we were to examine the numbers of hours each student in a class spent studying, with their numerical grades on a test. We would expect there to be a fairly high degree of correlation between the two. Not perfect, because some students can do well without studying hard and others just get by with excellent effort. Similarly, if we were to correlate the number of hours students spent watching TV in the last three days before the test, we would expect there to be something of a negative correlation with the grades. This would probably be a of a lesser magnitude though, since there are plenty of other ways to goof off before a test than watch TV, and some students study hard and watch TV.
Correlation ranges from 100% to -100%. It is important to note that correlation is not causation. The classic example in this regard is that of the number of churches in a town and the number of crimes in that town. If you research it, you will find a high degree of correlation, which might lead you to believe that churches cause crime. However, in fact, both the number of churches and the number of crimes in a town depend on a third variable--population. As the population rises, the number of churches and the number of crimes increases.
Negative statistics. There are several negative statistics in a quarterback's record, and as we would expect, these correlate poorly with winning. For example, interceptions correlate at -50%, and times sacked at -14%. If we calculate out the interception percentage we find that it correlates at -55%, and sack percentages correlate at -15%. This basically indicates that interceptions are far more devastating to a team's won/lost record than sacks (not exactly a surprise).
Positive statistics. There are many statistics in a quarterback's record that correlate positively with winning. Starting with just the counted stats, we find that pass attempts correlates very weakly with winning--just 3%. This is not surprising at all; since losing teams pass more often as a percentage of their total plays, but probably get fewer plays on average. Completions correlate much stronger with winning at 29%. Yards gained correlates at 35%, while touchdowns manages 38% correlation.
If we go to calculated stats, the correlations step up a notch. Touchdown percentage correlates at 44%. Yards per attempt correlates at 59%. Completion percentage (which most folks are unimpressed with) correlates at 67%. And the NFL's passer rating formula correlates at 68%.
The fact that completion percentage rates so highly is something of a surprise, but if you look at the league leaders it is hard to deny:
Daunte Culpepper
Ben Roethlisberger
Chad Pennington
Drew Brees
If you had to draw up a list of MVPs for the season thus far, all those guys would have to draw serious consideration. Their teams are a combined 22-7, they've thrown 51 TDs and 14 interceptions between them.
The Best Quarterback in the NFL Right Now
Is pretty clearly Tom Brady. The interesting thing is that there's really nobody else around to make a case. Here's the current top ten in passer rating for this season:
Manning, Peyton 117.4
Culpepper, Daunte 114.2
Brees, Drew 106.8
Griese, Brian 104.9
Roethlisberger, Ben 104.7
McNabb, Donovan 102.9
Carr, David 99.7
Pennington, Chad 99.1
Green, Trent 96.4
Harrington, Joey 94.5
See anybody there who doesn't have huge question marks next to his name? Manning, Culpepper and McNabb have put together fine regular seasons with disappointment in the playoffs. Brees, Roethlisberger, Carr and Harrington are young guys with lots of potential, but none has even played in a postseason game, let alone won one. Pennington looks like the real deal, but he's gotta prove he can stay healthy and of course, he's gotta win a Super Bowl before he can be considered close to Brady's level. Griese and Green are just good players; nobody thinks they're close to the top rung.
There is a distinct shortage of championship quarterbacks in the NFL right now. Favre, Brady and Kurt Warner are the only starters who've won titles; Brad Johnson was a starter earlier in the year but has lost his job to Griese.
Look Who's Back!
Why, it's Anita Hill, getting another 5 seconds of fame.
How Can The Democrats Win?
This sounds pretty close to the right diagnosis, wrong prescription.
"We have to be very careful about the kind of candidate that we nominate and where that candidate comes from," said Scott Falmlen, executive director of the Democratic Party in North Carolina, where Easley won in a landslide Tuesday despite Kerry's lopsided loss there to President Bush. "This party has got to get in a position where it does not write off an entire section of the country."
Dick Harpootlian, former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, was more blunt. "As of now, Hillary Clinton's a bad idea," he said.
The standard-bearer should be a face from the South or the Midwest, he added, naming Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, this year's vice presidential nominee, or Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana as presidential possibilities.
Bayh's not bad, but Edwards? Wasn't he exposed as an empty suit?
Friday, November 05, 2004
The Battle for the Democrats
The question now is whither the Democrats? (Or is it, wither the Democrats?). There are two possible responses to any defeat:
1. What did we do wrong, and how can we change to avoid making those mistakes again.
2. We didn't do anything wrong, we got beat by lying and cheating.
Here's a pretty good article from the standpoint of the first response.
In Ohio, union leaders met Wednesday morning to assess their loss and discuss how to plan for the future, said Burga. It was a repeat of meetings they had after Al Gore lost in 2000, but with a big difference. This time, the answer will be not just better organizing, Burga said, but an effort to find out who the religious conservatives are and how to connect with them, a question the unions had never confronted before.
I suspect they'll find that they cannot connect with them without losing the liberal elites. The fact of the matter is that you cannot finesse the issue of abortion with the pro-life crowd. "Let's keep abortion safe, legal and rare," is a slogan that is not going to tempt Christian conservatives.
Slate's Tim Noah looks at the options:
1. Democrats need to move right.
2. Democrats need to move left.
3. Democrats should sit tight and await the inevitable demographic shift that will put them on top again.
and concludes they're all bad. However, his argument is weakest on the first option:
Reason 1: The DLC is a victim of its own success. Having already moved the Democratic Party rightward—these days, there isn't much point in distinguishing between a "new Democrat" and a plain old "Democrat"—it now risks taking the party too far rightward. If the Democrats continue down this path, then pretty soon it will be impossible to distinguish the Democrats from today's Republicans. (Some folks on the left, including Ralph Nader, think that's already happened.)
Yes, but those folks are the kooks like Michael Moore, et.al., who are dragging the party down to defeat time and again.
Reason 2: The process of moving the Democrats rightward has no end point, because every time the Democrats shift rightward the Republicans respond by shifting a little further rightward so they can continue to denounce the Democratic position as radical leftism. That explains why the GOP of today is so much further right than the GOP of the Reagan era, when Republicans were still willing to support expansion of the earned income tax credit for low-income workers; more progressive taxation of Social Security benefits; arms control; and promotion of human rights abroad. (This rightward shift was documented compellingly by Joshua Green in "Reagan's Liberal Legacy" in the January/February 2001 Washington Monthly.) In theory, there ought to be a point where the GOP has moved so far to the right that nobody will vote for its candidates. But in practice, I'm not confident that such a point exists.
That's just plain stupid. Take an issue, literally any issue, but let's say abortion. Suppose the Democrats move to the right on that and take the stance that abortion should be outlawed except in the case of rape or incest. Where could the Republicans get to the right of them on that issue? By holding out for the death penalty for women who get abortions? Would the public follow them that far?
No, so this argument doesn't hold any water. In fact, it really goes back to his first point, which is that if that's how far the Democrats have to go to win, they'd rather lose. As Zell Miller put it in an article the other day, they'd rather be a majority in a minority party, than a minority in a majority party.
Sometimes the need to move rightward is portrayed as more a matter of style than of policy. But John Kerry didn't get anywhere with his hunting-trip photo op, or with frequent affirmations of his Catholic faith. Democrats, I fear, are doomed to be thought phonies whenever they play this game, even when they aren't. (Kerry is a phony in some ways, but I believe him to be sincere in his faith and in his enthusiasm for hunting.
That means you're easily duped, Tim. Kerry got an "F" rating from the NRA. And his sincere belief in his faith stops when it comes to actually using that faith to decide moral issues.
The Democrats do have to move rightward, especially on moral issues, if they want to win. Whether they want to win that badly is another question.
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