Poll Vault South CarolinaOnce again, a LOT more people came out for the Democratic primary; somewhere around 20% more. In a state where Republicans got 40% more of the vote in the general election in 2004. I don't see a good way to spin that positively for the GOP.
Although turnout was only 51%-49% male to female on the Republican side, it was 61%-39% female to male today. Running the numbers reveals that overall 537,000 women came out to vote in SC, while 430,000 men cast ballots. Although women did support Hillary more than men in the Palmetto State, they still voted overwhelmingly for Barack.
If the Clinton's goal was to define Obama as the black candidate, then it appears that in South Carolina they succeeded. Barack won huge margins among blacks of all ages, not only lost white voters of all ages over 30, but finished third, behind Edwards and Clinton.
Obama loses votes steadily as the population ages, something that does not bode well for him in Florida. Interestingly Edwards' percentage went up steadily as religious attendance declined. There was a sense of reality among voters; even those who voted for Obama appear to recognize that Hillary is more electable and more qualified to be Commander in Chief (my God!).
Despite Edward's populism, he did slightly better among college graduates than those without a degree, and his percentage of the vote pretty steadily rose with income. Is it ironic that socialism seems more popular with the wealthy than the poor.
Labels: Barack Obama, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, South Carolina
Monday, January 21, 2008
Mitt Did Not Compete in South Carolina?Expect to hear this meme being spread by the "drive-along" media today. Now, it's true that Mitt Romney was not very competitive in South Carolina, getting less than half the votes of Senator John McCain. But did he compete?
The answer is clearly in the affirmative. Fox News reported on Saturday that Romney had spent over $4 million in the Palmetto State, and that fully half of all TV ads in the state had featured the Mittster.
The Washington Post reports that Romney did a total of
52 events in the state over a total of 22 days. He had four events on the Wednesday before the primary.
Now it's certainly true that Mitt abandoned South Carolina when he saw that a fourth place finish was likely. But the funny thing is that he didn't suffer for it; the final RCP averages showed him finishing with about 15.1% of the vote, which is right about where he ended up.
The
Politico noticed that even as Romney stopped appearing in the state, he continued his TV ads:
The Romney camp is plowing tens of thousands more dollars into all the markets that serve South Carolina, including Savannah and Augusta, Ga., per a source who follows ad buys.
Romney went back on the air here Tuesday and, with his current buy, will now saturate the state heading into Saturday.
It was a smart move politically for Mitt to fold his tent in South Carolina to lower expectations. But don't buy the line that he didn't make an effort. He did, but it was unsuccessful.
Labels: 2008 Candidates, Mitt Romney, South Carolina
