Thursday, August 05, 2010
Favre to Retire?
With all the speculation about whether he's on for 2010 or not, I thought it might be worth posting what I wrote about Favre in 1992, after his first season in Green Bay:
The local paper had a picture of him after an early season comeback victory. He's a big, burly kid, looks nothing like a quarterback. With Atlanta in his rookie year of 1991, he threw five passes, none of which were completed. That is, none to his own team. Two were complete to the other guys. The other guys happened to be the Redskins, who were en route to a Super Bowl title.
In 1992, he atoned for that lousy start, and then some. If you were to offer me the future earnings of any one player in the National Football League, I'd choose Brett Favre. Want to know who's going to be remembered as the player of the 1990s? Brett Favre. Who's going to win the Super Bowl sometime in the next three years? Yes, he is.
Brett Favre was the sixth best quarterback int he league last year. He was also 22 when the season started. You can't name five quarterbacks who've had this good a season at the same age or younger. Bernie Kosar, Dan Marino and Fran Tarkenton are the only ones I could come up with and I looked hard.
Brett Favre completed 64% of his passes last season. He only ranked seventh in that category, but that figure would lead the league about half the time.
His rapid development makes the Packers' GM Ron Wolf look like a genius. As the Jets' director of player personnel a year earlier, Wolf tried desperately to trade into a position to draft Favre, but the Falcons grabbed him before New York had the chance. Wolf wouldn't take know for an answer, and set Atlanta a first-round draft pick for Favre when he got to Green Bay. It looks like the steal of the century.
I don't believe in looking at game-by-game statistics, but in this case I couldn't resist the temptation. In his worst effort last year, Favre's completion percentage was 54.1%. He had three games where he completed 70% of his passes, and eight others where he completed over 60%. That's getting the job done consistently.
There are only a few warts on the season. The major one was the loss in the final week to Minnesota, in which Favre was miserable after an early scoring drive. He was also ineffective in Week 10 against the Giants. Outside of those two games, he rated 92.9 by the NFL's method.
In the Jay Schroeder comment, I made some points about yards per completion. Brett Favre three for 10.7 yards per completed pass, one of the lowest of anybody in the NFL. The guys below him weren't any good--DeBerg, Millen, Esiason and Stouffer. The only reason Favre was able to succeed at that level was his phenomenal completion percentage. However, he really does need to throw a little longer.
The good news is that he was so successful at the short game last year that there's little doubt the Packers can stretch his arm a little without the inevitable negative consequences--interceptions and incompletions--destroying his value.
And look at the NFC Central. The Bears collapsed so hard they took down Mike Ditka with them. The Vikings played well last year, but they don't have a quarterback they feel confident with. The Lions fell apart, and the Bucs are still the Bucs.
Doubters will probably compare Favre with Don Majkowski in 1989. However, the Majic Man was three years older than Favre in his big season.
Card shops report that his most expensive rookie card--the 1991 Topps Stadium Club, in which his name is misspelled Farve--runs only $9. Other rookie cards can be had for 75 cents or less. At those prices he looks like a steal. If you've got a couple hundred earning 3% in a savings account, you might consider investing in Favre Preferred. It's got strong upside potential.
Not too far off the mark, eh?
Labels: Brett Favre