Obviously the major trendlines are pointing towards a Republican slaughter in the House and Senate. McCain so far seems to be outperforming the Senate candidates quite handily. For example, with 5% in from Virginia
, McCain is leading by 15 in precincts where the incumbent Republican, Gilmore, is losing by 14 points. Ditto with Kentucky, where McCain is leading by 15 in precincts where the incumbent Republican, Mitch McConnell is only up by 4.
It seems clear to me so far that it is not John McCain being repudiated by the voters here, but the Republican party in general. I'm still hopeful, but my reading of the tea leaves right now is that Obama will win by a modest margin, not the blowout that many people were predicting.