Will The Contest Be Dramatically Different If Obama's the Nominee Rather Than Hillary?
That's a question I plan to ask Senator McCain at the next blogger conference call. It comes to mind because of an AP poll result
that seems very interesting:
In a finding that underscores both McCain's cross-party appeal and the bitterness of the fight for the Democratic nomination, about one-third of Obama's supporters picked McCain when asked their preference in a Clinton-McCain general election matchup. Nearly three in 10 Clinton backers said they would vote for McCain over Obama.
Sounds very much like the race will be dramatically different depending on the opponent, possibly putting different states into the "battleground" category. As has often been observed, Obama polls poorly among Hispanics, a category in which McCain should do quite well. McCain also polls well among older white women, another area in which Obama has had trouble.
Jerome Armstrong notes that the Obama campaign has not been specific
about its plans for electoral college victory, as compared to the Hillary machine:
I'm not talking about the national polls either, but how does Barack Obama put together a winning electoral advantage over John McCain?
I have heard Clinton's many times, and its been played out in the Democratic nomination battle. She'll take an unprecedented high level of women and Latino majorities into winning all (or nearly all) the states that John Kerry (and/or Al Gore) won, and add in: Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and Florida. Maybe there are some other states, but if we just add those 42 electoral votes to the Democratic column, Clinton would win.
I doubt Arizona is really available for Clinton given McCain's favorite son status. But at least Hillary has a plan; Obama has "hope".
Labels: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain