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Tuesday, October 10, 2006
 
Poll Fault

Our buddy the Bulldog Pundit takes a look at those "disaster for the Republicans" polls and finds the usual nonsense:

In the NYT poll, 14% of respondents aren’t even eligible to vote. And of those 86% that are registered, a full 41% didn’t vote, and an additional 10% don’t remember. And while I’m no math major, it would seem to me that of the total respondents to this poll, a full 50% of them either aren’t registered to vote or didn’t vote in the last midterm election. So again, please tell me, how it is that any conclusions can be drawn from this poll. Further, a full 21% of registered voter respondents didn’t even show up to vote in the 2004 Presidential election.

The Demographics of the WP poll are even more ridiculous. In that poll, Democrat respondents outnumber GOP respondents by a full 11% (38-27%). Plus, 3 of the 4 nights in the WP poll are weekends, and the poll director of the WP has previously admitted that weekend polls favor Democrats.

I should mention here that I do suspect that public opinion has turned pretty sour on the Republicans. But as BDP mentions, there are really only 30-40 congressional elections which are competitive, and national polls tell us little about what is going on in those particular districts.

If the Republicans do get swamped this election, there will be consequences. First, I will endorse John McCain for President in 2008. Why? First, because things will not get better for the Republicans in the next two years if the Democrats take substantial power in Congress. Therefore it will be necessary that the Republicans have the strongest possible candidate--not the best possible candidate from my personal viewpoint, but the one with the strongest chance of winning.

And second, if we lose this year there is little doubt in my mind that it will be because some members of the party decided to send a message. But the time for sending messages is not in the general election, but in the primaries. Indeed, what I will get from a loss to the Democrats this year is that the folks sending the Republican party a message are undependable.
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