Competitive House Races for 2006
Just did some surfing around Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball
website for information on the races for House of Representatives that he considers the most competitive.
Sabato estimates that 30 seats are truly competitive this year. Of those, 10 are held by the Democrats, 19 are held by Republicans and one is held by Socialist Bernie Sanders. Among the competitive seats there are only five open seats (that is, where the incumbent representative is not running); Republicans currently hold three of those seats, while the Democrats hold one; Sanders' seat is also open.
Sabato estimates that there are eight races which are a tossup; the good news is that those are evenly split between Democratic and Republican incumbents.
As expected, Heather Wilson's seat
is listed as competitive, although Sabato does give us encouragement in that Heather's district is estimated to lean Republican (largely on the basis of Wilson's incumbency), although he notes that it voted for Kerry in 2004. His information here seems a little outdated:Although some Republicans have encouraged a Senate bid by GOP Rep. Heather Wilson, it won't happen in 2006, and Democrats' hopes of winning this Albuquerque-based, Kerry-majority district in 2006 depend entirely on their ability to field a candidate who can match her appeal.
Popular state Attorney General Patricia Madrid would be the top Democratic choice, but at this point it is more likely that the nomination will fall to a state legislator such as state Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino if he enters the race. Even if Madrid were to run, Wilson has proven she is no stranger to close races and therefore she remains the favorite.
Of course, Madrid is running and almost certainly going to be the Democratic nominee.