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Friday, January 27, 2006
Kerry Filibuster Bound to Fail

Democrat Senator Kent Conrad of North Dakota has indicated his inclination to vote for Alito.

Kos sounded the retreat last night.

We have two Democrats in North Dakota, one in South Dakota, and one in Montana. In the South, we have two in Arkansas, two in West Virginia, and one in Louisiana.

That's nine Democrats who, like it or not, we are blessed to have in the Senate. Sh*t on them if you want, but would you rather the count be 43 or 34? But fact is, we're not going to get these guys 100 or even 80 percent of the time. That is, if we want any chance at remaining competitive in the Senate.

So Reid had to hold three of these nine Red-state-Dems plus Jeffords. He got Baucus to declare a "no" vote, which was a minor miracle in its own right. Jeffords will also vote "no". But a filibuster? Much tougher. Can he get three of those ten to not just vote "no", but take the much more explosive step of engaging in a filibuster?

That's a savvier bit of analysis than I expect out of Kos.

See also Texas Songbird's excellent and amusing post on the Kerry Filibuster.

Okay, the final nail in the coffin for the filibuster: Cenk Uygur's going to do a live, on the "air" filibuster until he gets 41 senators to agree with him.

BTW, for those on the "Let's get rid of Lincoln Chafee" bandwagon you might want to take a look at his approval/disapproval ratings. Although he ranks tied for 74th in net approval, remember that he's in a very blue state and he's at 53% approval, which usually indicates a good chance at reelection.
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