Is the Base Really Abandoning Bush Over Miers?
If they are, it's pretty hard to find the evidence. Lorie Byrd puts it well
here:I have received quite a few emails, though, telling me that “the Base” is upset over this and that many will never vote for another Republican again as long as they live and that this nomination will result in the loss of the Senate in 2006 . Unless the base is defined as some conservative pundit/bloggers and blog readers, then there is nothing (that I have seen) to indicate that the base is up in arms over this nomination. If those opposed to Miers continue to speak out loudly (which is their right) and to claim that Bush lied (which I believe is just inaccurate) then maybe they will create some unease with the base. If they do, though, it will have been from the top down, rather than from the grassroots up.
I thought I'd take a look at the polling. We've all seen frequent reports on Bush's supposed falling job approval numbers. With his numbers so low, it seems safe to say that those remaining in approval largely make up the Republicans' base. So if Bush had really angered the base strongly with this pick, it should show up in further declines.
But it's not. Rasmussen polling does daily polls
of the president's job approval ratings, which it blends into a three day moving average, and there is no evidence of erosion in his support. Here are his approval percentages the month of October so far: 45, 45, (Miers nomination announced) 46, 47, 47, 46.