The Moss Effect?
Last year, Daunte Culpepper was the runner-up for MVP of the National Football League. He compiled an outstanding season, completing 69 percent of his passes for an average of 8.6 yards per pass attempted, with 39 touchdowns versus only 11 interceptions. His passer rating was 110.9, which is probably among the five highest ratings for a full season ever, certainly in the top ten.
This season he's played quite a bit less well, with the lowest passer rating in the NFC so far. He's completed only 61% of his passes for an average of 6.7 yards per attempt, with 0 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.
It is tempting to attribute this to the loss of Randy Moss by the Vikings, and indeed, the Raiders' quarterback, Kerry Collins, has
shown some improvement in his passing stats this season (even though the team is 0-2). Collins has completed 53% of his passes this year versus 56% last year, but his yards per attempt is up to 7.1 from 6.8 last year. More important, he's thrown 4 TDs and not been picked off yet, whereas last year he had 21 TDs and 20 interceptions.
However, I strongly doubt that one wide receiver, no matter how talented, has that much impact on his team. For evidence, just look at 2004. Moss was injured for three games in November last season. Culpepper showed no signs of decline with his #1 target off the field. Here's a look at Culpepper's stats with and without Moss in 2004:
................Comp%.....Y/A.....TD%....Int%
With Moss....69.3%.....8.7....7.1%....2.2%
W/o. Moss....68.4%.....8.1....7.4%....1.1%
Not really a significant difference there with the slightly higher completion percentage and yards per attempt outweighed by the much higher interception percentage.
And it's not as if Culpepper hasn't been inconsistent throughout his career. His passer ratings by year:
2000: 98.0
2001: 83.3
2002: 75.3
2003: 96.4
2004: 110.9
