How Will The Democrats Vote on Roberts?I haven't blogged much about Judge Roberts because the judiciary isn't really my beat, but the question of who will vote for and who will vote against is more about politics than about judicial philosophy.
I suspect that the votes will break nearly down the middle, maybe 20 Democrats for, 25 against (counting Jumpin' Jim as a Dem for the moment--and he will vote no). The groups that will vote in favor of his nomination:
Senators from red or purple states up for reelection in 2006. Ben Nelson from Nebraska, Kent Conrad from North Dakota. Possibly Maria Cantwell, although I tend to doubt it.
Legitimate Moderates: Joe Lieberman, Mark Pryor.
Faux Moderates: Hillary Clinton.
Democrats on the Gang of 14: Mary Landrieu's probably a coin toss, as is Ken Salazar. One thing that may help sway them is the fact that this is now Rehnquist's seat. Had it been O'Connor's they would have been more likely to vote nay (while not filibustering). Byrd and Akaka will vote against.
Democrats on the Judiciary Committee. Most speculation is that all 8 Democrats on the panel will vote against confirmation. Dianne Feinstein is probably Robert's best hope to pick off a vote.
That's nine at best. Maybe I'd better revise down my estimate.
Update: Captain Ed
points out that even the LA Times (and the Washington Post) have decided to endorse Roberts. It does seem rather foolish for the Dems to battle this nomination. Because Roberts was proposed for Rehnquist's spot, the balance of power on the court does not even change. The Dems should keep their powder dry for O'Connor's replacement.
