Patrick Hynes: Structural Advantages Favor RepublicansHere's a real nuts and bolts analysis of 2006, apparently the first of a series by our buddy from the
Ankle-BitersContrary to conventional wisdom, the reasons the Democrats are not poised to benefit from the Republicans' recent lackluster performance are structural, not ideological; founded in hard electoral facts, not fluctuating public opinion. To put it another way, the Democrats aren't likely to make major gains in 2006 because they can't. During the next couple of weeks I will lay out the case against a Republican collapse, for good or ill, based on an electoral structure that rewards incumbency, punishes challengers, and strongly favors the GOP. In politics, the saying goes, everything will be different in 18 months. "Everything" here refers to the issues of the day, the things we discuss around the proverbial water cooler. But political realities shift much more slowly, if at all. He points out that the Republicans are not fund raising well at the Senate level:
The NRSC has raised just under $17 million so far this year and has approximately $6 million cash-on-hand. The DSCC has raised just under $16 million and has $8.9 million cash-on-hand. The DSCC's cash-on-hand advantage is based almost exclusively on a one-month fundraising bonanza last April. This probably has to do with the "Not One Dime" campaign that
Captain's Quarters and
Hugh Hewitt have endorsed due to the revolt of the Gang of 14. I'm still in the
Coalition of the Chillin' on that personally, but I can understand the disappointment. And anyway, I don't give to the NRSC; I'd rather analyze the races myself and decide where my money will do the most good--like John Thune last year.
