Survivor ThoughtsIan apparently blows the game by picking Tom to go with him after winning the reward challenge, after he and Tom had agreed that whoever won should take one of the women along with him. His mistake seems even more bizarre because his rationale was that he had agreed with Tom that if it was anything involving a car, he'd take Tom. But clearly the intent was that if a second car was being given away, Tom would get it, not that Tom would get to ride up the hill in Ian's new Corvette.
But then, after emphasizing the emerging women alliance (which I predicted here last week), the final vote came out the way we could have predicted weeks ago, with the civil rights lawyer, Caryn, getting the axe, and the original alliance (minus Gregg) making it to the final four.
Caryn should have embraced the female alliance when she had the chance, and overplayed her hand by trying to keep one foot in both the men's and women's camps. The men are clearly the threats in the game, with Tom seeming obviously fated to be the winner of the endurance game that always ends the immunity challenges for a season. Ergo, they had to be picked off. Indeed, had Tom not won immunity, it's likely that the women would have eliminated him from the competition.
Prediction for tonight: It's Tom. He's at once the most likely to be eliminated first, and the most likely to win it all. He will obviously have some detractors on the jury, but so will the rest of the original alliance. If he gets to take somebody to the final with him, he'll inevitably lose one vote immediately--if he takes Jenn it's Gregg, if he takes Ian it's Katie and vice-versa. But he's got a heck of an argument, since he's kicked their butts in just about every competition that doesn't involve targets. As my buddy Wayne put it, Tom can't hit anything unless he's using a firehose.
