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Saturday, January 31, 2004
Fearless Super Bowl Prediction:
New England by 10. Brady establishes himself as the kid with the chance to be the greatest ever.
Understand, there is a tendency to interpret the past to reveal the present. For example when Green Bay played Denver in the Super Bowl after the 1997 season, the past would indicate that the Packers would win. They were 3-0 in Super Bowls, the Broncos were 0-4. They had a young QB who had won a Super Bowl already against an old QB who had lost multiple Super Bowls. All the indicators said Green Bay, but the Broncos won.
Thursday, January 29, 2004
My comment about Macho Liberals earlier brings something amusing to mind. Democrats are getting increasingly angry about being told that they have to nominate a Southerner if they want to win the White House. After JFK in 1960, Northern Democrats have gone 0-4 (Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale Dukakis), while Southern Democrats have gone 4 (Johnson, Carter 1976, Clinton 1992 and Clinton 1996) and 2 (Carter 1980 and Gore 2000). If you buy the argument that the Republicans stole the election in 2000 you're an idiot, but you'd also make it 5-1 for Southern Democrats.
But of course liberals are tired of hearing about this because the most liberal candidates do not live in the South. And because there is a natural antipathy in the party towards Southern White Males. It is quite obvious that members of this demographic have deserted the Democrats in droves over the last few decades. And the irony is that because they are relatively rare, they have significant value, much like Republican blacks. The amusing part is that folks have been trained by political correctness to hate Southern White Males.
Wednesday, January 28, 2004
Well, my predictions for New Hamster were not as bad as Iowa. I got the order basically right. However, Dean did not have the closing kick that Zogby seemed to be showing on Monday, and thus despite finishing second did not get the comeback mantle. Yesterdays results do show the problems with relying on leaked exit polls. Dean was even shown as squeaking out a win by the LA Times.
Tuesday, January 27, 2004
Zogby editorializing? Here's his take on why Kerry's leading Dean in his latest polling:
But in the final analysis, New Hampshire voters have decided to nominate a possible president instead of sending an angry message.
Get it? John Kerry is a possible president, Howard Dean is an angry messenger.
The National Review is reporting early exit polls: Kerry 36, Dean 31, Edwards 12, Clark 12. Not sure how well those numbers will hold up. After all, it is possible that Dean supporters are voting early and that Edwards and Clark fans will be voting later. But if it holds, both Kerry and Dean will claim the "comeback" mantle. Clark would be out, Edwards would be in trouble. Apparently Joe-mentum has fizzled; no reports of Lieberman's polling.
Macho Liberals?
Al Franken body-slammed a protester at a Dean rally to the ground according to the NY Post. I'll confess to being a little conflicted over this one; on the one hand, the protester was a LaRouchie and I think those folks could benefit from a few more body slams (especially if they land on their head).
On the other hand, Franken's stated purpose for the slam was "I'm for freedom of speech, which means people should be able to assemble and speak without being shouted down." Hmmm, or being slammed to the ground? Plus, Franken says "I would have done it if he was a Dean supporter at a Kerry rally," which I don't doubt. The question is whether he would have done it to a Dean supporter at a Bush rally.
But the incident does highlight something that I've noticed lately: Macho Liberals. A few days ago I was talking to a liberal friend and I made a comment about Dick Cheney. The guy's response was "He's such a pussy!" This was a little bit surprising to me as a) I had not heard that comment previously about Cheney and b) I had not heard anybody over the age of about 25 (my friend is pushing 40) refer to another man as a pussy before.
When I thought about it, Macho Liberals are everywhere. Franken has been challenging conservatives to fistfights for awhile now, including Rich Lowry of the National Review. Joe Biden memorably told Bush not to bomb the Taliban from the sky, but to go "mano-a-mano". Wes Clark talks about President Bush "prancing around on the deck of an aircraft carrier", a dig that appears to be just a tad homophobic.
Is it possible that it's caused by white men feeling like they are an endangered species among Democrats?
Republicans for Dean? Hugh Hewitt did a bit for his blog last week about what Dean should do to get over the "I Have a Scream" speech. Today Andrew Sullivan wades in with a fisking of a Washington Post article about the Deans by Ann Gerhart.
Of course, they are helping out Dean for the same reason why I registered with Dean's Blog for America. We want to keep the Vermonster alive so he can continue to amuse us, possibly win the Democrats' nomination, and go down in flames to President Bush in the general election. Note particularly that Andrew exhorts Dean to continue to be amusing:
No, it's not. We all love a candidate who's a little bit nutty. Everyone has their moments. Dean's scream was hilarious and it was temporarily damaging. But take another look-see. The polls in New Hampshire are turning around a little. Dean's authenticity, his rage, his cojones got him where he is today--still the guy with the most money and some of the most passionate support. If Dean is to last, he shouldn't give up his fire.
Hmmm, sounds like the Dean campaign is already getting set to write off New Hampshire. Got an e-mail today from Joe Trippi:
"The way to win the nomination is to get a majority of the more than 4,300 delegates to the Democratic convention. Iowa and New Hampshire combined decide only 77 of those delegates."
True enough as far as it goes. But I thought the message was that Dean is making a comeback? The problem may be the latest Zogby poll which shows Dean losing by about 13 points.
Monday, January 26, 2004
As noted by Hugh Hewitt late last week, Dean has hit the trampoline; all the polls now confirm that he's gaining support (or, more accurately, regaining support). This probably hurts Kerry most of all; he does not want to be one of two Northeasterners competing in the South and Midwest. It helps Edwards, as Clark's apparent melt-down means that he will be the only Southerner left standing, especially if he can slip ahead of the general tomorrow.
My prediction is that Kerry wins New Hampshire, Dean comes in second, close enough to claim the comeback kid mantle. Edwards finishes third, Clark finishes out of the money and folds his tent. Joe Lieberman's not going anywhere.
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