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Wednesday, May 14, 2008
The 49-State Strategy?I don't expect this to affect Obama's support level, and it at least reflects some sense among his campaign staff: At Obama's Chicago headquarters, advisers said there was no reason to worry — West Virginia was demographically suited to Clinton and won't be part of their general election plans. But the liberal blogs should be up in arms. What happened to the cherished 50-state strategy?
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74% of West Virginia Democrats Vote Against Presumptive NomineeThe media have been having fun reporting that something like 25% of Republicans in recent states have been voting against McCain; let's see them do the same for Obama. Nope, it's going to be "You inbred corn cousins, the only way you could vote against the Obamessiah is if thought he was a Muslim." Note, as usual, that it is white Democrats who think this. Matt Yglesias does his best to put lipstick on the pig: What's even more interesting is that no Democrat has won the White House without carrying Minnesota since 1912 (it went for Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose party) so given that Obama won Minnesota and Clinton won West Virginia, McCain is guaranteed to win the general election unless the eventual nominee can somehow completely replicate the social and political conditions prevailing in pre-WWI America. The outlook, in short, is very grim. Sorry, Matt. The issue is not whether you carry Minnesota in the caucuses (not even a primary). The issue is whether you can carry it in the general election. Hillary has a chance in Minnesota; Obama has no chance in West Virginia. It's true that Obama can cobble together an electoral map without WV, but when you say that PA and FL are out too, well, McCain's looking at winning easily. What is amazing is how many people are putting down West Virginia. Check out the (Not-So) Moderate Voice: Because, of course, that is exactly what Hillary is pitching to the Democratic primary voters of West Virginia (and presumably Pennsylvania, Ohio, and soon Kentucky) is that like the “White God-fearing citizens of Rock Ridge,” it is perfectly cool… no, it is laudatory, that they should not wish to live under the governance of a Black man– any Black man. Simple as that. She said it. This is why she should be the choice of the super-delegates, because, despite Obama’s significant lead in delegates and votes, (1) he’s still a Black man and hence cannot win a general election, and (2) his big lead is as a result of overwhelming support among Black voters, who, since they are not the target demographic, should be discounted accordingly. One thing is certainly consistent. The Hillary voters slag Obama and the Obama voters slag the Hillary voters. Aravosis admits what everybody's known for years: the media are in the bag for the Democrats: Why is the media even covering her? The only stories that should be written about Hillary Clinton is how much damage she's causing our party. How she's hurting fundraising at the DNC - they even admitted it, they're not raising the money they need to fight John McCain because of this woman. Labels: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton
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Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Shocking Racism on the Campaign TrailOh, the humanity! Here's the worst: In Muncie, a factory town in the east-central part of Indiana, Ross and her cohorts were soliciting support for Obama at malls, on street corners and in a Wal-Mart parking lot, and they ran into "a horrible response," as Ross put it, a level of anti-black sentiment that none of them had anticipated.
"The first person I encountered was like, 'I'll never vote for a black person,' " recalled Ross, who is white and just turned 20. "People just weren't receptive." Horrible, indeed! Granted, the idea of not voting for Obama based on his color is absurd, but this gal gets the vapors over it. There are some other incidents that are mentioned, but I note there's no discussion of the sexism that Hillary supporters have encountered on the campaign trail.
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Monday, May 12, 2008
The Ronulans Continue to AmuseAndrew Malcolm looks at their plans to take over the Republican Convention: In the last three months, Paul's forces, who donated $34.5 million to his White House effort and upward of a million total votes, have, as The Ticket has noted, been fighting a series of guerrilla battles with party establishment officials at county and state conventions from Washington and Missouri to Maine and Mississippi. Their goal: to take control of local committees, boost their delegate totals and influence platform debates. Unfortunately, he repeats some old nonsense about how McCain is still not getting 100% of the vote in the Republican primaries: Just take a look at recent Republican primary results, largely overlooked because McCain locked up the necessary 1,191 delegates long ago. In Indiana, McCain got 77% of the recent Republican primary vote, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, who've each long ago quit and endorsed McCain, still got 10% and 5% respectively, while Paul took 8%.
On the same May 6 in North Carolina, McCain received less than three-quarters of Republican votes (74%), while Huckabee got 12%, Paul 7% and Alan Keyes and No Preference took a total of 7%. In fact, many McCainiacs were voting in the Democratic primaries in an effort to throw a monkey wrench into their process. Regardless, the Paulistas are still getting that same 7% or so they were getting back in February. Captain Ed has more: McCain has been winning meaningless primaries by the same percentages that George Bush won them in 2000, and McCain significantly outperformed Paul in the 2000 races. At that time, no one seriously thought that Bush had an insurgent problem with McCainiacs, because he didn’t — and now McCain doesn’t have a problem with Ronulans, either. Winning 8% of the vote in a state where McCain didn’t campaign and where McCain-supporting Republicans crossed over to keep Hillary in the race isn’t impressive, it’s pathetic.  Labels: 2008 Republican Convention, Ron Paul
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Saturday, May 10, 2008
Obama's HopeIs that the campaign is fought on his turf, not McCain's: Barack Obama began sketching the outlines of his expected presidential contest against Republican John McCain on Saturday, saying the fall election will be more about specific plans and priorities than about questions of political ideology or who is more patriotic. Hey, if I were Barack, I'd not want the campaign to be fought over who is more patriotic, too! Labels: Barack Obama, John McCain
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Yes, Obama Said He Would Meet Ahmadinejad UnconditionallyThe New York Times attempts a rowback for Obama: “Senator Obama wants to sit down and have negotiations and discussions with the person who just yesterday called Israel a quote ‘stinking corpse,’ ” he said, referring to Mr. Ahmadinejad, and “who continues to advocate quote ‘wiping Israel off the map.’ ”
Susan E. Rice, a former State Department and National Security Council official who is a foreign policy adviser to the Democratic candidate, said that “for political purposes, Senator Obama’s opponents on the right have distorted and reframed” his views. Mr. McCain and his surrogates have repeatedly stated that Mr. Obama would be willing to meet “unconditionally” with Mr. Ahmadinejad. But Dr. Rice said that this was not the case for Iran or any other so-called “rogue” state. Oh, well, excuse us; we have just taken Obama at his word: QUESTION: In 1982, Anwar Sadat traveled to Israel, a trip that resulted in a peace agreement that has lasted ever since.
In the spirit of that type of bold leadership, would you be willing to meet separately, without precondition, during the first year of your administration, in Washington or anywhere else, with the leaders of Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea, in order to bridge the gap that divides our countries?
COOPER: I should also point out that Stephen is in the crowd tonight.
Senator Obama?
OBAMA: I would. And the reason is this, that the notion that somehow not talking to countries is punishment to them -- which has been the guiding diplomatic principle of this administration -- is ridiculous. Labels: Barack Obama, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, New York Times
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Friday, May 09, 2008
What Do They Have In Common?Andrew talks about the Obama internet phenomenon and compares it to two other candidates: Obama and Paul are the result of the unfolding Dean revolution in internet politics. But what Obama has done is use the power of the web to organize on the ground more effectively than any candidate in history. So far, the non-Paul right has been pretty clueless. Yep, he's comparing Obama to Ron Paul and Howard Dean, two guys who got tremendous buzz and who lost horribly.
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Tuesday, May 06, 2008
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Monday, May 05, 2008
Tonight I'm Gonna Party Like It's 1968!Here's an amusing set of reminiscences of that tumultuous year. My favorite bit is Stefan Kanfer's encounter with Mark Rudd: Rudd had two expressions, blank and furious, and the first now appeared. “In the 1930s,” I shouted over the increasing crowd noise, “there were all sorts of insurrectionists who promised a New World, come the Revolution. You know what? The Revolution never arrived. A little later, the marchers abandoned their cause and wound up with real jobs. And they were damned glad to get them. Read some history now and then.”
“Never!” declared Rudd. It was unclear whether he meant getting a job or reading a book. “Never!” His admirers joined in, “Never! Never!” They crossed the street, broke the few intact windows, yelled at the cops, and started marching around the block urging student action, beginning with a refusal to attend classes. “Strike!” they shouted, like the chorus in a Clifford Odets play. “Strike! Strike!”
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Is This The Real Reason Barack Won't Wear A Flag Lapel Pin?Because if he did, Bill Ayers would step on him? But let's remember, he's a mainstream Chicago liberal, just like Barack! Here's the original photo, along with the text. Get this bit of nonsense: In 1970, a bomb that was apparently being built in a Greenwich Village townhouse, occupied by at least five members of the Weatherman, accidentally exploded—killing three of the group, including Ayers's beloved Diana Oughton. In Fugitive Days, Ayers tries to imagine what happened. Maybe Diana tried to stop the others from their path? Maybe they all drank too much coffee and smoked too many cigarettes?
Maybe Diana saw that this bomb, packed with nails and screws, would have exacted a heavy human toll if it had ever reached its destination—a New Jersey military base. Could she have, in a gesture of sacrifice, crossed the wires herself? "I'll never know what happened," he says. "That's the price I have to pay. And maybe they were smoking too much dope. One thing I noticed from the Weather Underground documentary of a few years ago was that everybody tried to divorce themselves from the group at the townhouse, as if this was some splinter group. Undercutting this narrative is the fact that Ayers' girlfriend was there. And the notion that she sacrificed herself nobly to save lives at Fort Dix is ridiculous; it's painting a happy face on a woman who had planned to murder others but was incompetent enough to only kill herself and two other fruitcakes.
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According to the article:  Obama's daughters, Sasha and Malia, did skate—tentatively but adorably. Obama and his wife, Michelle, walked alongside while a ring of photographers and cameramen captured the scene. At one point, Obama's youngest, 6-year-old Sasha, skated a short nervous distance into her father's outstretched arms. If the point of the scene was to make the candidate look just like any other (well-dressed) Indiana father out on a Saturday night, then campaign strategists got what they wanted. Actually what they got looks way too much like John Travolta getting out onto the dance floor. Yes, he's hot and he knows it. Weird. Is this the kind of stuff we'll be seeing out of him instead of the baseball and football throws on the tarmac that Kerry amused us with? He doesn't look like any other well-dressed Indiana father on a Saturday night, he looks like he's auditioning for America's Next Top Model.
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