Week 13 Marquee Game
Obviously the big one is the rematch of last year's NFL Divisional Playoff between the Packers and the Eagles. The Packers needed only to hold on fourth and 26 to win that game; instead they gave up a 27-yard pass.
Both teams come in with solid momentum; the Packers have won six straight while the Eagles have notched three consecutive easy wins. The Packers this year have a negative home field advantage (-3 points), which is to say they've played better on the road (4-1) this year than at home (3-3). The Eagles come in with an average HFA of 2.8 points per game.
The spreadsheet sees this as an easy, two-touchdown win for Philly. It's safe to say that most observers are not expecting that; the Packers have been playing well. They have outscored their opponents the last six weeks by 97 points while the Eagles have outscored theirs by 55. On the other hand, the Packers have faced a pretty easy schedule over that run (average opponent rating of 96.4), while the Eagles have had average competition (average opponent rating of 100.0).
The Packers obviously have something to play for, with Minnesota having an easier game at Chicago. The Packers are looking at a fifth seed in the playoffs, which virtually guarantees three road playoff games between you and the Super Bowl. I can think of one team that has won three road playoff games to make it to the dance--any trivia buffs out there care to guess?
The Eagles also have something to play for: Home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The last I looked at the matter, home teams won about 68% of all playoff games and the team with the HFA throughout the playoffs made it to the Super Bowl about 1/2 the time. If the Eagles lose that would drop them into a nominal tie with Atlanta, but it looks like Philly has the tie-breaker in that they beat Detroit and Atlanta lost to the Lions. So obviously Philly has less urgency than the Packers.
The line is only Eagles -6, so overall I'd have to pick the Eagles. But this is one of those games that I'd be spooked from betting because there's too much else out there.
