Simulation Says Jets Are Probably In The Playoffs
I ran a simulation game by game. First I estimated a game score for each game; for example, I estimated that based on prior performance the Patriots should beat the Jets by about 18-17 next week (actually 18.1-17.7). But does that mean the Jets have a 100% chance of losing? No, the predicted margin tells us that the Jets have a decent chance of winning, if not quite 50%. Bill James suggests the Pythagorean formula, which is that the Jets have about a 49% chance of winning (17.7 squared divided by (17.7 squared plus 18.1 squared)).
After setting up every meaningful game that way, I generated random numbers to simulate the games. In 100 runs of the remaining schedule, the Jets got the top wild card seed 86% of the time. They were at least the #2 wild card another 6% of the time, and in 8% of the runs it was murky enough that they might not make it.
Looking at the rest of the teams, Buffalo probably has the best chance of winning their last two games, but they've got problems nevertheless. Both Baltimore and Jacksonville have beaten the Bills, so the only team they can afford to be tied with is Denver. Baltimore appears to be in if they win out, but they have a tough test at Pittsburgh next week.
