Pondering the Imponderable
Captain Ed catches Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell suggesting that had 9-11 never happened, John Kerry would have been elected President. Ed uses that as a jumping off point to suggest other events that, had they never occured, would have changed history as well, to which I would just add that had Lincoln never been died he would be beginning his 36th term as President.
Would John Kerry have been elected if 9-11 had not taken place? I suppose you could construct a narrow argument that without the focus on national security the election would have turned on the economy and jobs, issues on which the Democrats are presumed to have an advantage (God only knows why). But of course, taking 9-11 out of the picture also means that we have to take out the effect of 9-11 on the economy and jobs, which undeniably was strongly negative.
You'd also have to assume that President Bush would not have invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, so the "anti-war" movement would not have started. Howard Dean would not have been the front-runner last December, which would have meant that John Kerry might never have emerged as the "electable" alternative to Dean. Indeed a lot of people have speculated that Kerry's comeback among the Democrats was largely due to his war record. Would that have mattered if there had been no war?
