Not All Seeds Are Created Equal
I took a look at how the respective seeds had done in the playoffs. Since 1988, the 32 top seeds have combined for 17 total appearances in the big game, for a 53% chance of playing for the Lombardi Trophy. No real surprise here--the chalk usually wins. When they stumble, the #2 seeds usually pick up the slack. They have accounted for 10 of the remaining 15 Super Bowl contestants, or 31% of all appearances.
The third and fourth seeds make up the remainder, as no fifth or sixth seed has made it to the big dance since 1988 (I believe the 1985 New England Patriots are the only fifth seed ever to appear in the Super Bowl). Oddly, the fourth seed has done better, with four appearances compare to only one for the third seed.
Actually, though, it's not so odd. Back in the days when there were only three divisions in each conference, it was quite possible for the fourth seed to be better than the third seeds. Starting from 1990, when the NFL went to having six teams in the postseason from each conference, to 2001, when the fourth seed stopped being a wild card team, the fourth seeds in the AFC combined for a 131-61 record, versus a combined 123-69 for the AFC third seeds. The fourth seeds in the NFC combined for a 130-62 record, as compared to 125-66-1 for the NFC third seeds.
But... that situation no longer applies. Now the third seed will have no worse than an equal record to the fourth seed, and so far they have finished well above the fourth seeds. The AFC third seeds the last two years have combined for a 22-9-1 record versus 19-13 for the fourth seeds. The NFC third seeds have gone 23-9 versus 20-12 for the fourth seeds.
