Can Steroids Help Barry Bonds Hit .362?
Kitty forwarded to me this link to a
partial transcript from the Rush Limbaugh show yesterday. Rush, not surprisingly, has concentrated his ire on the grand jury leaks, since he himself has been harmed by grand jury leaks in the past.
There is a common belief that although steroids may be helping Bonds hit all those homers, they cannot help his batting average. I myself have raised this argument in the past. But it seems possible that in fact it can help his batting average. Think about it for a second: Suppose earlier in his career, Bonds was hitting the ball 370 feet for a long out. But with his new power, the ball is going 400 feet, just enough to carry it over the fences. This clearly affects his batting average, because he gets an extra hit, increasing the numerator in the BA equation (hits/at bats).
So let's take a look at how Bonds hits when he's not knocking it out of the park. That's a fairly simple equation: (hits-homers)/(at bats-homers).
Here, year by year, are Bonds' actual batting averages along with his batting average on those occasions when he does not connect for the long ball.
Year Avg No HR
1986 0.223 0.191
1987 0.261 0.226
1988 0.283 0.249
1989 0.248 0.223
1990 0.301 0.253
1991 0.292 0.256
1992 0.311 0.257
1993 0.336 0.274
1994 0.312 0.240
1995 0.294 0.245
1996 0.308 0.246
1997 0.291 0.234
1998 0.303 0.252
1999 0.262 0.184
2000 0.306 0.227
2001 0.328 0.206
2002 0.370 0.289
2003 0.341 0.255
2004 0.362 0.274
As you can see, there can be a dramatic difference between the batting average with homers and that without. In 2001, when Bonds was the unanimous MVP selection due to his 73 homers, he actually had one of his worst seasons ever when not trotting around the bases.
Compare Bonds' 1991 season to 2003. Bonds actually hit better when not homering in 1991 (.256 to .255) compared to 2003. But last year he hit 20 more homers in 120 fewer at bats, so his batting average was almost 50 points higher in 2003.
So it seems clear that if steroids can make it possible for Bonds to hit the ball farther (as everybody seems to acknowledge), it is quite possible that it can also raise his batting average. Indeed, if we look at Bonds' last five years, which coincides with his sudden homer burst, Bonds has only raised his average when not homering by eight points from .240 to .248, but his overall batting average has jumped an incredible 51 points from .288 to .339.
None of this proves that Bonds has been using steroids. But it does significantly undermine one of the arguments against that proposition.
