Turnout In Red States Way Up
I was blogging on the turnout yesterday at Kerry Haters. The turnout was the early signal that Bush was going to win. Kerry's people felt that higher turnout would favor them, and indeed, conventional political analysis holds that higher turnout favors Democrats.
But it was where the turnout was up that provided the early signal that the nation was not about to take a sudden left turn. I coded the states as Red or Blue based on how they had gone for President in 2000, and when I started looking at the turnout it was pretty obvious that turnout was extraordinarily high in the Red (Republican) states.
How obvious? Well, the overall turnout in Red States this year was up an incredible 17% on average, while the overall turnout in Blue States was only up 6%. This is one reason why Bush did so much better in the popular vote, while only modestly improving his electoral vote total. These patterns showed up fairly early in the data, and I should have pointed it out last night. But things were happening fast and furious, and of course we went from the depths of despair to absolute glee in the course of only a few hours.
