Why Week One Doesn't Matter--Correction
After I wrote yesterday that the NFL has wised up and given the crappier teams home field advantage I realized that I'd better check that (
check first, then post!--ed). Sure enough, it turns out I was all wet on that point. The teams that had home field advantage in the first week this season were a combined 133-123 in 2003; a little bit better than average, in other words.
The real reason that Week One doesn't matter is that the NFL makes the best teams play the best teams and the worst teams play the worst teams early in the season. There were 14 teams with winning records in 2003; in their first games of 2004, they played teams that went a combined 132-92 last year. There were two teams that were 8-8 last season; they played teams that went a combined 16-16 last year. And there were 16 teams that had losing records in 2003; in their openers of 2004 they played teams that went a combined 108-148 in 2004. Note: This does not apply to every team. Arizona, which went 4-12 in 2003 played the 12-4 Rams, while the 4-12 Giants were carved up by the 12-4 Eagles. But still, on average the crummy teams play the crummy teams while the chalk plays the chalk.
