Fearless Iowa Prediction:
Dean, Gephardt, Edwards and Kerry. Dean wins by a few percentage points over Gephardt. The 15% rule makes for some interesting dynamics. Suppose you're an Edwards supporter and your fellow Edwards partisans at the local caucus are less than 15% of the group, then you are required to pick a second candidate. Obviously you don't want to go for Dean. But voting for someone else means axiomatically that you are helping your own guy finish third. So the question is whom do you want to finish ahead of you? Obviously the answer is Gephardt. He's poorly positioned (3% RCP Average) to do anything in New Hampshire, so any momentum he might get by finishing first is going to be stalled next week. They don't want Kerry because he's got the bucks and the potential to improve his standing in New Hampshire.
Kerry's backers make the same calculation--no to Dean, no to Edwards. Gephardt they can explain away winning or finishing second. Indeed, some pundits think even a close second finish will doom Gephardt.
