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Sunday, November 29, 2009
A Horrific Day of PokerPlayed by my opponents, but with the flesh coming out of my hide. I'm playing pretty good, won a couple of medium-sized pots, and feel in the groove. We're getting close to last chance to rebuy, and the guy to my right goes all-in for 1600, about 1/8th my stack. Obviously he's looking to get felted so he can get back up to 6000, the rebuy stack. I look down at 7-7 and pretty quickly decide I have to fold, as there are 4 people behind me. Smart, tight play, of course, was not rewarded on this hand, as nobody raises, everybody calls and the flop comes 7,8,7. Crap, flopped quads and out of the hand as the first to act actually starts betting the hand (on his A-8, which as we know was probably the best hand at that time. So I would easily have doubled up, maybe even tripled if I'd been able to show weakness. Rough hand, but I didn't put any money into it and so I'm still ahead as far as the tournament goes, but I'm definitely feeling snakebit. A few hands later, I pick up pocket 5s under the gun. I limp and there are no raises. A lovely 5 spikes on the flop, but there are two diamonds, so I know I have to withstand the flush draw on the turn. I bet twice the blind, and everybody calls. Terrific! Turn comes a complete blank, a black 4. I push all in. And Peter calls with two cruddy diamonds and hits the Kd on the river. Terrible call on his part, no way he had anywhere near pot odds, but he's one of those guys who "feels lucky". Still, the table now has two banks and no real tight players, so I rebuy. We're getting close to the break, after which there will be no rebuys, so I look to pick up a big hand and push on it, figuring one of the banks will call on the assumption that I'm just looking to get another rebuy. Sure enough, two hands before the break I pick up KK. Hallelujah. I shove, and loosey goosey Peter calls. And turns over AA. Holy smoke, I cannot believe the horrible luck. But for the only time that day the poker gods smile on me, delivering my set on the flop and no Ace. Doubled up and back in the game. Later we get to the final table and I pick up QQ two behind the dealer, who's one of the definite banks. So I push, knowing he will call. He does, with 8-4 offsuit. Flop comes with another Q, but I'm looking at the other two cards. 6-5, meaning he's picked up a gutshot. And sure enough I get a bullet in the stomach with the 7 on the turn, and no pairup to make my boat on the river. Absolutely sick. I was 86% to win the hand preflop, and probably not much worse after the flop. Even on the river I had 11 outs.
I'm Sure They Wouldn't Lie to UsAfter all, they're scientists. SCIENTISTS at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have admitted throwing away much of the raw temperature data on which their predictions of global warming are based.
It means that other academics are not able to check basic calculations said to show a long-term rise in temperature over the past 150 years. Not to worry, they do have the "value-added" (i.e., massaged data. Now, let me point out that this is completely bass-ackwards. You keep the raw data above all else; the massaging can change as you learn more about the process. Labels: Climate Change, CRU, University of East Anglia
Friday, November 27, 2009
Run Through Your Reads On All-InsHere are two pretty good examples from recent hands I've played. In the first one, we're getting close to the final table with the blind at 400-800. On the button with only one caller outside the blinds, I pick up QQ. Hello! I pop it up to 2400 to go, and the blinds fold. The other caller has the big stack at the table, so no big surprise, he calls my raise. Flop comes Jack high, with two spades. He bets at it and I just call, knowing that if he's on the spade draw I won't get him out of the hand by pushing. Turn comes a low club, putting both club and spade draws on the board. He bets again and I'm getting a little spooked even with my overpair. River throws the third (low) spade up and he pushes all-in. Now of course, on the river, my initial read is that he hit the doggone flush. But now I go back to my reads on the prior cards and pretty quickly realize that the best hand to put him on is A-J or K-J. I doubt he would have been so pushy on the flop or turn with only a draw. So I make the call, and sure enough it was K-J and I'm doubled up. Last night I failed to go through the reads again and let myself get bluffed off a pot. With the blinds at 200-400, the villain limps in either under the gun or early in the hand. I'm the small blind with no other callers and I look down at A-J both hearts. I pop it up to 1200. BB folds. Flop comes J-8-5, two diamonds. I put 600 in the pot, something of a weak bet to see where he thinks he's at. He comes firing out with 1800. My initial read here is that he's on a pretty good Jack, maybe Q-J or K-J, or even the matching A-J. He could also be on the flush draw or straight draw, and looking to get a check out of me on the turn so he could see the river for free. The turn comes a 2h, gotta be a blank, right? So I fire 2000 into the pot, about 1/3rd my remaining stack. And he goes all-in. So now I try to think what the heck he could be saying he had. Did he hit his set? I don't see him as the type to limp in with pocket fives or eights, let alone jacks and I doubt he'd limp in early or call a raise pre-flop with any of the two pair possibilities. Pocket dueces? Extremely unlikely that he'd reraise after the flop with that hand. So I should have gone back to my original read of a good jack, and said at worse I'm chopping. So I do the old "Will you show me?" bit and he agrees. And turns over Q-9 offsuit when I muck my cards. He'd had an even worse hand than I was putting him on at a minimum; much worse, although he would have had seven outs on the river (any queen would give him the overpair and any 10 the straight). Of course, I did pick up a good read on him; he'll re-raise with bullcrap, which is generally a bad idea against a tight agressive player like me. So now I gotta wait until I can trap him again, and this time make sure he doesn't escape.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
The President's Golf GameI had to laugh a bit at this article on what a terrible golfer President Obama is: The frequency and secrecy of the president's golfing has infuriated some of his basketball fans. This love of the links can't be for keeps, they moan, for he who plays secretly must surely play badly.
How badly? His score is a matter of "national security," deflects David Axelrod, political adviser to the First Duffer. White House aides said playing golf gets the president outdoors more, but declined to comment further on why he appears to be favoring golf over hoops, or why members of the press haven't been allowed to watch him tee off. But later on in the article they reveal that his handicap is in the mid-20s and that he generally breaks 100. But they overdo how easy this is: Mr. Mulak says he never learned Mr. Obama's score that day, but figures he surely broke 100, an average score for a hacker on a tough course. "Solid shots -- I wouldn't say straight lasers at the pin," he says. In fact, most hackers don't break 100 on a tough course. I'm a decent golfer, nothing special, and I'd guess that well over half of my playing partners in life have not broken 100 in the rounds they played with me. Obviously Obama is not a great player by any means, but sub-100 rounds are nothing to sneeze at. Look, there's a lot to criticize about the man; this health care fiasco is a good place to start. But his golf game is not one of them.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Foghorn Leghorn Polling Well Against McCain?Predictably, the anti-moderate chorus is pushing 2006 congressional loser JD Hayworth to run against the GOP's presidential candidate in 2008, and of course they will get some ammunition from Rasmussen's recent poll, which shows the former sportscaster within striking distance of McCain. Frankly, I doubt Hayworth's dumb enough to challenge McCain. For one thing, the senator's already got about $5 million in his campaign fund, and another $20 million left over from his presidential run. And the Democrats have already admitted that they can't come up with a credible challenger, so he doesn't have to keep his powder dry for the general election. Labels: J.D. Hayworth, John McCain, Rasmussen Polling
Saturday, November 14, 2009
If I Were Shedding Pounds the Way Obama's Shedding Independents...I'd be able to fit into my clothes from the 1980s. Scott Rasmussen talks about Obama's plummeting poll numbers: A CNN poll released Nov. 6 found that 47% of Americans believe the top issue facing the country is the economy, while only 17% say its health care. However, the bulk of the president's efforts over the past six months have been not on the economy but on health care, an issue in which he continues to draw negative ratings.
In a Rasmussen Reports poll taken after the House of Representatives passed health-care reform by the narrowest of margins last Saturday night, 54% of likely voters say they are opposed to the plan with only 45% in favor. Furthermore, in the all-important category of unaffiliated voters, 58% oppose the bill. That's one of the reasons why so many moderate Democratic House members opposed it.
The CNN poll also shows that in addition to health care, a majority of Americans disapprove of how Mr. Obama is handling the economy, Afghanistan, Iraq, unemployment, illegal immigration and the federal budget deficit. Put simply, there isn't a critical problem facing the country on which the president has positive ratings. Note also this result from Gallup: This month's improvement in congressional approval is bipartisan, with approval among Democrats climbing from 36% to 47% and among Republicans edging up from 9% to 17%. Independents, however, buck that trend: moving from 16% to 14%, the percentage approving is the lowest it has been all year. Not sure why Congress' approval rating jumped among the GOP, but that independent trend is quite noticeable; from 31% to 14% in about four months. Labels: Barack Obama, Gallup Poll, Independents, Rasmussen Polling
Sunday, November 08, 2009
The Amazing Race: Hay-Baby!Teams start out in Holland and must fly to Stockholm. Given that they are starting late (first team leaves at 9:48 PM), I am assuming that this will be the bunching maneuver that the Interracial Couple needs. Sure enough the next flight is in the morning at 6:55 AM. But... only three teams can get on the flight. The next flight is about 2-1/2 hours later. So the Farmer and Son get bunched with Miss America and "Brian!" At the airport in Stockholm, teams must grab a subway to the city, but they have to buy tickets before hand from ATM-style machines, which seem to take forever to accept the currency. As it happens, the Gay Brothers and the Blond Beachers get lucky and leave the Harlem Globetrotters behind on the platform. They make it to a ferry which takes them to an amusement park. They get on a drop-from-height ride where they have to spot an arrow that will lead them to the next cluebox. They decide to cooperate, but is that just accepting reality? If a team decided not to get back on the ride and started running, wouldn't the other team be smart to just follow them rather than go back up? Ring toss is the next "challenge". The teams must toss rings over a cone and hope that it contains a Gnome. Of course this is not a big deal and so we go to the real challenges of the evening. The detour is next: Nobel or Viking. In Nobel they must fill a bunch of sandbags, then blow up a small mound to get their clue. In Viking, they must decipher the Norse alphabet. Not too surprising, everybody decides to blow things up. I'd be tempted to try the Viking part, but I'm a nerd. As a result, teams leave here in essentially the same place as they started. Now they head to Bogs Gard Farm, which we are told is the site of one of the most infamous challenges in TAR history. One player from each team must find TAR flags in a huge field of rolled-up hay bales. IIRC, the ratio is about 7 flags in 200 bales of hay, so that the odds are about 1 in 30, and it looks like each bale takes a long time to unroll. We are told that in an earlier season, a team spent 8+ hours out in the field without finding the flag before Phil called the mercy rule on them. So it must be assumed that this will be a horrendous challenge. Sure enough, the Gay Brothers and the Interracial Couple, despite being at least 15 minutes ahead of the Globies, find the basketball players out there in the field with them. And unlike many other challenges there is no particular advantage to being in the lead; all the unrolled bales actually help the late-arriving teams especially since they are fresh. Sure enough the Globies find the flag first and win the round, giving Flight Time a birthday present. They win a trip to somewhere in East Jabib; I never heard of their destination in my life. Eventually the female half of the Blonde Beachers finds her flag, then "Brian!" Now the Gay Brothers, who won the last episode and the Farmer and Son are the only teams out there. And the taller of the Gay Brothers realizes he has to stop nagging his shorter brother, and finally Shorty finds it. So now the old man is the only one out in the field, but I'm definitely suspicious that this will be a non-elimination leg. After a couple of hours, the Farmer finally scores and he and his son dash to the mat. And Phil definitely cons me. He direly notes that the Farmer and Son, "are the last team to arrive. I'm sorry to tell you... that the next leg is going to be very difficult!" Sure enough, it's a non-elmination leg, although F&S have to do an extra challenge in next week's episode. Comments: Overall an interesting episode, although I do feel that the Hay Rolling part is a bit unfair on teams that have established a lead. In a lot of other endurance challenges there was some definite advantage to having been out there, and yet there is no value to that in this one. It's kind of a hidden bunching maneuver. Team to Beat: I'm still betting on the Blonde Beachers; they're one of the best teams I've seen yet in TAR. They support each other, they work hard, they don't make any stupid mistakes. Only the Gay Brothers seem like a challenge. The Globetrotters are good, but they've made some mistakes (like misreading a watch) that call into question their brains. And Miss America couldn't count the bells. So watch out BB's, because late in TAR I always pick the team doomed to be eliminated the next show. Labels: The Amazing Race
Friday, November 06, 2009
 Heroes Come In All SizesTake Kimberly Munley for example: The diminutive Munley - she stands 5-foot-4 and weighs about 120 pounds - served as a cop in Wrightsville Beach, N.C., before she moved to Texas to enlist in the military, friends said. And yet: The hero cop who ended the bloody rampage at Fort Hood by pumping four bullets into the crazed gunman even though she was wounded is known for her toughness, friends say. More on her wounds: Wounded three times in the arm and leg, Munley is in stable condition after undergoing surgery Friday to repair damage to an artery. Base officials said she wishes she could have acted even faster and saved more lives, and she spent Thursday evening calling friends and colleagues, expressing those regrets. I am going to predict here and now that she insists that she's no hero. The real ones always do.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
That Idiot Scozzafava!Her scorched earth campaign cost the conservative the race in NY-23! Crap, what a disappointment! About the only good news is that the nutroots like Kos were unhappy with Owens to begin with. But still, we can console ourselves with winning NJ and VA. But I am perplexed with Hoffman's loss; all the polls said we'd win there. What happened?
Sunday, November 01, 2009
The Amazing Race HollandAn interesting episode, with lots of frustration for the contestants. First, teams are told they must fly to Amsterdam. It turns out that the next flight is over 10 hours away, so all teams will catch the same flight. As it happens, the starting times reveal that the Blonde Beachers were almost two hours ahead, so the bunching maneuver certainly hurts them. As they wait in the airport, the Gay Brothers decide it's time to come out of the closet. Everybody seems to take it in stride. Although Tiffany Michelle of the Poker Players expresses some regret they don't want to date her, she reaffirms their alliance. After landing in Amsterdam, the teams must drive to a dam, where a statue will alert them to the next clue. The Interracial Couple's hubby can't get the car into drive, and finally asks somebody in the garage for help; I'm not sure what was going on there. One of the Globetrotters mentions that out of all the players in the race, everybody knows Brian's name, because his wife is constantly yelling "Brian!" On cue, they arrive at the statue and he urges his wife to run and she says, "Brian!" Teams must drive to some small city in Holland and find the Martinitoren, the tallest building in the town. There they have to count the bells in the tower. The pink-haired farmer's son blazes this one, but there are two very interesting moments by the other teams. First, the Blonde Beachers work together, although this is a roadblock, which is supposed to be done by one player or the other. Somehow this does not seem to matter, as they are not penalized. Second, the Gay Brothers give the Poker Players the answer (62), giving the latter a break over the Interracial Couple, who are now in last place. And it looks even worse for the Interracial Couple as Brian's wife (a former Miss America) can't seem to figure out the number of bells in the tower. She's consistently wrong as the other teams move way ahead. Next is the Detour: Farmer's Game or Farmer's Dance. Farmer's Game is basically golf with a ball a little larger than a softball. In Farmer's Dance, someone must ring the bell on one of those carnival-type sledge-hammer machines, then learn a dance, and then eat a bunch of raw fish. The first team to arrive are the Blonde Beachers. At first they seem to be having trouble with the Farmer's Golf. The Farmer and Son decide to try dancing at first, and they easily ring the bell. Then they see the part about eating fish, and apparently pink-hair boy never eats fish, so they dash off to play golf. There's a hilarious bit in here where the Farmer says this isn't the first time he's dressed up in women's clothing. Huh? He quickly clarifies that it's just for some costume parties. Ooooookay! Meanwhile, the Gay Brothers quickly make their way through the golf game and are headed for the mat. The Poker Players start out with Farmer's Dance, but it is quickly apparent that neither of them can hit the bell, so they decide to play golf. The Globies decide to go dancing, and despite some obvious discomfort with the fish, they blaze through. Gay Brothers win. About this time, Miss America finally finds the 62nd bell. The Blonde Beachers finally get the hang of golf, and the Farmer and his Son don't seem to have any trouble. Blonde Beachers finish off, followed by Globies and Farmer and Son. And now it becomes obvious that the Poker Players are hosed. They don't have the strength to ring the bell at the Dance Challenge, and they are hopeless at golf. They go back to try dancing, then back to try golf. Eventually the Interracial Couple arrives, hubby rings the bell first time, and it's pretty obvious. But... they were supposed to ride a bike to the Detour, so they incur a 30-minute penalty. Miss America breaks down; after being stunned to find they had not been Phil-liminated as the last team, they have to wait. But the Poker Players do not show up and the Interracial Couple are still in the race. The Poker Players are unable to finish, and concede. Comments: It's easy to say that it was unfair to have a detour where sheer brawn matters; the only all-girl team is eliminated because they couldn't ring a frigging carnival bell, while every man did it the first try. And I will say it. Obviously the counter is that they shouldn't have gotten the answer to the number of bells in the tower question for free; that's a bit too much alliance. Team to beat: Still the Beachers. The Farmer and Son are probably the most likely to go next week; the Farmer is the only old person in the race. The Globies, Gay Brothers and the Interracial Couple all look competitive. A lot will depend on whether there is a bunching maneuver next weekend, as the IC is still clearly several hours behind everybody else. Labels: The Amazing Race
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