Then Why Poll at All?
The report on the exit polling fiasco is out. Gerry Daly has some great analysis
, which appears to indicate that the problem was young people with advanced degrees (i.e., likely liberals) doing most of the polling.
I was amused at this paragraph in the report
(PDF file warning):
It is also important to note that the exit poll estimates did not lead to a single incorrect NEP winner projection on election night. The Election Night System does not rely solely on exit polls in its computations and estimates. After voting is completed, reported vote totals are entered into the system. Edison/Mitofsky and the NEP members do not project the outcome of close races until a significant number of actual votes are counted.
Well, that's like saying I'll make a prediction for the outcome of the New England/Pittsburgh game this weekend, but I won't release it until midway through the fourth quarter, after I've seeded in the actual score at that point in the game. And it sidesteps the fact that the incorrect exit polls resulted in the NEP members holding off on predicting some states that went easily for President Bush.