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Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Beating the Yankees: Better Do It In the First Round

The Minnesota Twins made a good start on it yesterday, beating the Bronx Bombers 2-0. It's no secret that the Yankees are tough to beat in the postseason; since the advent of Divisional Playoffs in the 1990s, they have gone 6-3 in those series, which is pretty good. But in the American League Championship Series, they have been spectacular, winning 10 of 11 since their first appearance in 1976. Trivia question: Can you name the only team to beat the Yankees in the ALCS?
Monday, October 04, 2004
My Power Ratings Explained

The Power Ratings are shown around a base of 100.0, which is considered to be an average team. A team with a Power Rating of 108 is eight points better than an average team; a team with a Power Rating of 91 is nine points worse than an average team. Although there is no theoretical limit to how high a Power Rating can go, in practice they almost never go below 80 or above 115.

How the ratings are derived:

The simplest explanation is that I look at the team's net points (points scored minus points allowed) and divide that by the number of games played, and add the result to 100. For example, after Week 4, the Patriots had outscored their opponents by 31 points, divided by 3 games is an average scoring margin of 10.3 points pluss 100 gives us an estimated rating of 110.3, and New England's rating is in fact 110.1. The longer explanation is that the scores of every game are adjusted based on the quality of opposition and whether the game is home or away. For the most part, these adjustments are minor, but in some cases they do reveal a team that is much better or worse than it appears at first glance. For example, Tampa Bay is still seen by the spreadsheet as an average team, despite the brutal 0-4 record.
My Power Ratings after Week 4:

Phi 114.6
Sea 111.7
NE 110.1
NYG 107.7
Ind 107.5
Min 105.8
Atl 105.3
SD 103.6
Det 102.2
Den 101.9
NYJ 101.9
AZ 100.9
TB 100.2
Chi 100.2
Dal 99.9
Cle 99.9
Pit 99.8
Bal 99.7
Jax 99.6
StL 98.9
Hou 98.8
Was 96.9
KC 96.6
Oak 96.4
GB 96.0
Buf 95.7
Ten 95.2
Car 93.7
NO 92.6
Cin 92.0
Mia 90.1
SF 90.0

Comments: Subjectively, I would not rate the Giants that high; the spreadsheet has no way of knowing that Favre was out for most of the second half.

The home teams seem to be faring poorly thus far; they are only 31-29, with an average home field advantage of 1.5 points. Last year's home teams were 157-99, with an average HFA of 3.6 points.


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Contact Me: pcurley (at) cdwebs (dot) com

Brainster in the Media

Howard Kurtz's Media Notes: May 27, 2005

Slate Today's Blogs:

March 16, 2005

May 9, 2005

June 3, 2005

Cited for Breaking the Christmas in Cambodia story (at Kerry Haters):

Hugh Hewitt: KerryHaters was on this story a long time ago. How could the elite media not have asked these questions before now?

Ankle-Biting Pundits: Our friends Pat and Kitty at Kerry Haters deserve the blog equivalent of a Pulitzer for their coverage of Kerry's intricate web of lies regarding Vietnam.

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Lefty Bloggers on Gay Witchhunt (linked by 16 blogs including Instapundit)

Kitty Myers Breaks Christmas in Cambodia

Brainster Shows Brinkley Says No Christmas in Cambodia

Explanation of the Blog's Name

Power Ratings Explained

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