Brainster's Rules of Quarterbacks
I read a joke about somebody commenting that the Giants were considering giving Eli Manning some seasoning in NFL Asia. When the response came back that there was no such league, the wag replied that was the point.
This brings us to Brainster's First Rule of Quarterbacks:
1. Pay no attention to what a quarterback does in his first year of play, unless he does well.
Consider this first year line: 47.5% completion rate, 6 yards per attempt, 7 TD passes and 14 interceptions for a passer rating of 54.9. Or how about 53% completions for under 6 years per attempt with 9 TDs and 18 interceptions? A third had 52% completions, 3 TDs and 8 picks. Another guy was oh for five with two interceptions his rookie season for a perfect 0.0 passer rating. Throw them all away, right?
Reading from right to left, those are the rookie seasons of John Elway, Troy Aikman, Steve Young and Brett Favre.
Some quarterbacks do well right out of the chute--Dan Marino, Tom Brady, and Ben Rothlisberger come to mind. Those guys are almost always gold; about the only guy who performed great in his rookie year and didn't turn out to be a long-term star in the NFL was Greg Cook, who suffered a separated shoulder after his spectacular 1969 debut (led the league in passer rating) and was basically through.