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Thursday, October 28, 2004
Meet Bud Day
George E. "Bud" Day is the nation's highest living decorated military hero, and its highest since Douglas MacArthur.
In a military career spanning 34 years and 3 wars, Day received nearly 70 decorations and awards of which more than 50 are for combat. Most notable of his decorations is our nation’s highest military honor, the Congressional Medal of Honor, presented to him by President Gerald Ford.
Read the details of his near escape from the North Vietnamese here.
For several days meager meals of berries, as well as two frogs swallowed alive, provided the sustenance he needed to continue. After more than a week of struggle Day finally reached the Ben Hai River marking the boundaries of the Demilitarized Zone. Hiding from enemy patrols during the day, he left the cover of jungle that night and used a bamboo log to float across the river and into "no-man's-land". For another week he avoided enemy patrols and several times came heartbreakingly close to attracting the attention of American helicopters and reconnaissance airplanes. With unbelievable strength of character he continued south in hopes of reaching an American patrol that had ventured into the zone.
Unfortunately he was caught and taken back to North Vietnam, where he endured years of additional punishment. But they could not break his spirit.
In February, 1971 several American prisoners at the Hoa Loa camp gathered for a forbidden religious service. Suddenly they were interrupted by the enraged enemy guards. As the guards burst into the meeting room with rifles pointed at the prisoners, one of the Americans stood to his feet. Ragged, battered but unbroken, it was George Day. Looking into the muzzles of the enemy rifles he began to sing. The song was "The Star Spangled Banner", our National Anthem. Next to him another prisoner stood. Commander James Bond Stockdale was the ranking American in the prison and he lended his voice to Day's anthem of freedom. Soon the other prisoners joined the refrain, and then from throughout the entire prison camp, came the sounds of others. Stockdale, who would join "Bud" Day in receiving Medals of Honor five years later wrote that, although he was punished for the episode, it was exhilarating: "Our minds were now free and we knew it."
Bud Day is featured prominently in the movie "Stolen Honor", which can be seen for free at the link. Read his letter about John Kerry here.
Friday, October 22, 2004
 Brothers In Arms? 
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
NFL Power Ratings After Week 6
Comments: Some fine teams from last year are mired in the sub-100 group. The Jets appear fortunate; they will have to pick it up a couple notches to beat the Patriots.
The AFC is five games over .500 against the NFC thus far this season. Home teams remain only slight favorites with an average home field advantage of only 1 point compared to 3.6 points last season.
Team PWR6
Phi 114.7
NE 112.1
Ind 109.4
NYG 109.2
SD 107.5
Sea 107.4
Min 104.7
Den 104.5
Atl 102.3
Bal 102.2
StL 101.8
Jax 100.5
Cle 100.3
NYJ 100.3
Pit 99.7
Det 99.6
AZ 98.6
Chi 98.4
Hou 98.1
Was 98.0
Ten 97.9
Dal 97.1
GB 97.1
KC 96.7
Car 96.5
Buf 95.9
TB 95.1
Oak 93.6
SF 93.1
Mia 91.4
Cin 91.2
NO 90.9
Yankees in Game 7
Surprisingly for such a successful franchise, the Yankees have not performed at their usual stellar level in Game 7 contests. Ignoring 1921, when the World Series was a best of nine affair, the Bronx Bombers have gone 6-6 in the climactic games, winning the World Series in 1947, 1952, 1956, 1958, and 1962 and the ALCS in 2003. Their Game 7 losses have all come in the Fall Classic, with the Yanks bowing in 1926, 1955, 1957, 1960, 1964 and 2001. Considering that the Yankees have gone 129-84 in World Series games, for them to be only 5-6 in WS Game 7s is something of a surprise.
Monday, October 11, 2004
Power Ratings After Week 5
Comments: It must be tough to be an Eagles' fan, knowing that your team could clinch Home Field Advantage throughout the playoffs and still end up losing the NFC Championship. Tampa Bay drops a bit despite the win; the spreadsheet is obviously unimpressed with New Orleans, and three of the Bucs' former opponents lost while a fourth won by 3 at home.
Leaguewide, scoring is off by about 1.6 points per game, and the home teams are only 36-34, with 13 teams demonstrating negative home field advantage. Seattle's defense, which had looked superb through 3-3/4 games, fell apart in the fourth quarter and overtime yesterday.
Phi 116.9
NE 108.5
Ind 108.5
Sea 107.9
NYG 107.4
Det 105.7
SD 105.3
StL 105.2
Min 104.8
Atl 103.6
Bal 101.7
Den 101.4
Jax 100.1
Chi 100.1
NYJ 100.1
Pit 100.0
Cle 99.1
AZ 98.9
Hou 98.2
Ten 97.8
Buf 97.1
Oak 97.0
KC 96.7
Was 96.1
Dal 95.7
TB 95.3
Car 95.3
GB 93.3
Mia 92.4
Cin 92.1
SF 92.0
NO 90.0
Sunday, October 10, 2004
Left Face
Interesting article in the SF Chronicle today on the rise of the left in the Democratic Party.
Influential figures on the party's left wing are planning a long-term campaign to move the Democrats to the left, just as right-wing activists took over the Republican Party and moved it to the right over the past 30 years.
And just as left-wing activists took over the Democratic Party and moved it to the left after 1968.
Joe Trippi, Howard Dean's former campaign manager, argues that the Dean campaign has already pushed the Democratic Party -- and thereby the national political debate -- to the left.
Perhaps the debate has shifted to the left, but the population hasn't. Here's the situation in a nutshell. Moderates in the Democratic party say that the party can't win without a moderate candidate to appeal to the folks in the center who decide the election. Leftists analogize politics to a tug of war and insist that nominating moderates amounts to moving rightward (which of course is true). There is also the myth of the lost tribe of Democrats, who have given up voting. If the Democrats would just nominate a true leftist (say, Dennis Kucinich), that tribe would suddenly be energized and sweep him to victory.
I'm not sure I buy that. Republicans have been successful in moving right because the population was already headed in that direction. As the Baby Boomers aged they naturally turned more conservative. At the same time, the creaking liberal apparatus that had governed the country since the Depression ran out of gas. The Democratic party became more and more a coalition party of interest groups that frequently found one group (union members for example) at loggerheads with another (environmentalists).
More important, where exactly does the left want to pull us? The left pole, communism, has been thoroughly discredited as an economic system. State socialism, a la Europe, seems similarly in decline. Others have noted that about the only thing driving leftism in the United States is what they are against: capitalism, religion, and George W. Bush.
Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Beating the Yankees: Better Do It In the First Round
The Minnesota Twins made a good start on it yesterday, beating the Bronx Bombers 2-0. It's no secret that the Yankees are tough to beat in the postseason; since the advent of Divisional Playoffs in the 1990s, they have gone 6-3 in those series, which is pretty good. But in the American League Championship Series, they have been spectacular, winning 10 of 11 since their first appearance in 1976. Trivia question: Can you name the only team to beat the Yankees in the ALCS?
Monday, October 04, 2004
My Power Ratings Explained
The Power Ratings are shown around a base of 100.0, which is considered to be an average team. A team with a Power Rating of 108 is eight points better than an average team; a team with a Power Rating of 91 is nine points worse than an average team. Although there is no theoretical limit to how high a Power Rating can go, in practice they almost never go below 80 or above 115.
How the ratings are derived:
The simplest explanation is that I look at the team's net points (points scored minus points allowed) and divide that by the number of games played, and add the result to 100. For example, after Week 4, the Patriots had outscored their opponents by 31 points, divided by 3 games is an average scoring margin of 10.3 points pluss 100 gives us an estimated rating of 110.3, and New England's rating is in fact 110.1. The longer explanation is that the scores of every game are adjusted based on the quality of opposition and whether the game is home or away. For the most part, these adjustments are minor, but in some cases they do reveal a team that is much better or worse than it appears at first glance. For example, Tampa Bay is still seen by the spreadsheet as an average team, despite the brutal 0-4 record.
My Power Ratings after Week 4:
Phi 114.6
Sea 111.7
NE 110.1
NYG 107.7
Ind 107.5
Min 105.8
Atl 105.3
SD 103.6
Det 102.2
Den 101.9
NYJ 101.9
AZ 100.9
TB 100.2
Chi 100.2
Dal 99.9
Cle 99.9
Pit 99.8
Bal 99.7
Jax 99.6
StL 98.9
Hou 98.8
Was 96.9
KC 96.6
Oak 96.4
GB 96.0
Buf 95.7
Ten 95.2
Car 93.7
NO 92.6
Cin 92.0
Mia 90.1
SF 90.0
Comments: Subjectively, I would not rate the Giants that high; the spreadsheet has no way of knowing that Favre was out for most of the second half.
The home teams seem to be faring poorly thus far; they are only 31-29, with an average home field advantage of 1.5 points. Last year's home teams were 157-99, with an average HFA of 3.6 points.
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